Sheriff Arena · Analysis updated 10:55 UTC
Sheriff Tiraspol vs Politehnica UTM Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.85 expected goals for Sheriff Tiraspol and 1.47 for Politehnica UTM, a combined total of 3.33. That distribution gives Sheriff Tiraspol the largest share of the 1X2 market at 47%, with the draw at 23%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 65% for over 2.5 goals and 65% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 10%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 47% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Sheriff Tiraspol win
46.6% probability
Expected goals
1.85 – 1.47
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Sheriff Tiraspol home form
10 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
Politehnica UTM away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Sheriff Tiraspol to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 47%, against 47% / 23% / 31% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.85 goals for Sheriff Tiraspol and 1.47 for Politehnica UTM, a combined 3.33 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
69%
Double chance 12
78%
Double chance X2
53%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–19.8%
- 2–19.1%
- 1–27.2%
- 2–26.7%
- 1–06.7%
Recent form
Sheriff Tiraspol
- 2026-10-24T11:00:00.000Z · A vs Politehnica UTM · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-10-17T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Sireți · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-10-10T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Dacia-Buiucani · 5-2 (W)
- 2026-09-20T16:00:00.000Z · H vs CSF Bălți · 7-0 (W)
- 2026-09-13T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Milsami Orhei · 1-0 (W)
Politehnica UTM
- 2026-10-11T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Milsami Orhei · 3-3 (D)
- 2026-09-19T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Petrocub · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-12T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Zimbru · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-05T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Dacia-Buiucani · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-08-29T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Sireți · 0-0 (D)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Super Liga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Sheriff Tiraspol | 16 | 11 | 4 | 1 | 29 | 37 |
| 2 | Zimbru | 16 | 9 | 4 | 3 | 19 | 31 |
| 3 | Petrocub | 16 | 8 | 5 | 3 | 12 | 29 |
| 4 | Dacia-Buiucani | 16 | 7 | 3 | 6 | 0 | 24 |
| 5 | Politehnica UTM | 16 | 5 | 4 | 7 | 0 | 19 |
| 6 | Milsami Orhei | 16 | 4 | 7 | 5 | -5 | 19 |
| 7 | Sireți | 16 | 1 | 7 | 8 | -12 | 10 |
| 8 | CSF Bălți | 16 | 1 | 2 | 13 | -43 | 5 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Sheriff Tiraspol win, at 46.6%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 65% and over 2.5 goals at 65%.
A 47% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.