IAI Stadium Nihondaira · Referee Keigo Sentatsu, Japan · Analysis updated 15:35 UTC
Shimizu S-pulse vs Gamba Osaka Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.50 expected goals for Shimizu S-pulse and 0.80 for Gamba Osaka, a combined total of 2.30. That distribution gives Shimizu S-pulse the largest share of the 1X2 market at 54%, with the draw at 26%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 40% for over 2.5 goals and 43% for both teams to score, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 15%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 54% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Shimizu S-pulse win
53.8% probability
Expected goals
1.50 – 0.80
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Shimizu S-pulse home form
10 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Gamba Osaka away threat
Scored in 2 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 4 of the last 10 meetings.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
80%
Double chance 12
74%
Double chance X2
46%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–015.0%
- 1–112.0%
- 2–011.3%
- 0–010.0%
- 2–19.0%
Recent form
Shimizu S-pulse
- 2026-09-29T10:00:00.000Z · A vs Kanazawa · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-09-19T09:30:00.000Z · H vs JEF United Chiba · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-12T09:30:00.000Z · H vs Avispa Fukuoka · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-06T10:00:00.000Z · A vs Kawasaki Frontale · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-09-02T10:00:00.000Z · H vs FC Tokyo · 1-1 (D)
Gamba Osaka
- 2026-10-09T10:00:00.000Z · A vs Kashima · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-10-03T10:00:00.000Z · A vs Kashiwa Reysol · 4-5 (L)
- 2026-09-23T08:00:00.000Z · H vs Tokushima Vortis · 5-0 (W)
- 2026-09-20T08:00:00.000Z · H vs Vissel Kobe · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-15T10:00:00.000Z · H vs Công An Nhân Dân · 4-1 (W)
Head-to-head
- 2026-05-24T08:00:00.000Z · Shimizu S-pulse 1-2 Gamba Osaka (J1 League)
- 2026-02-28T06:00:00.000Z · Shimizu S-pulse 2-2 Gamba Osaka (J1 League)
- 2025-06-15T09:30:00.000Z · Shimizu S-pulse 0-0 Gamba Osaka (J1 League)
- 2025-03-08T06:00:00.000Z · Shimizu S-pulse 0-1 Gamba Osaka (J1 League)
- 2022-08-14T10:00:00.000Z · Shimizu S-pulse 2-0 Gamba Osaka (J1 League)
- 2022-04-10T04:00:00.000Z · Shimizu S-pulse 1-1 Gamba Osaka (J1 League)
- 2021-08-13T10:00:00.000Z · Shimizu S-pulse 0-1 Gamba Osaka (J1 League)
- 2021-04-18T08:00:00.000Z · Shimizu S-pulse 0-0 Gamba Osaka (J1 League)
- 2020-12-19T05:00:00.000Z · Shimizu S-pulse 2-0 Gamba Osaka (J1 League)
- 2020-07-12T09:00:00.000Z · Shimizu S-pulse 1-2 Gamba Osaka (J1 League)
J1 League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Sanfrecce Hiroshima | 10 | 7 | 2 | 1 | 19 | 23 |
| 2 | Machida Zelvia | 10 | 7 | 2 | 1 | 15 | 23 |
| 3 | FC Tokyo | 10 | 7 | 2 | 1 | 13 | 23 |
| 4 | Vissel Kobe | 10 | 7 | 1 | 2 | 8 | 22 |
| 5 | Kashiwa Reysol | 10 | 7 | 0 | 3 | 5 | 21 |
| 6 | Kashima | 10 | 6 | 1 | 3 | 5 | 19 |
| 7 | Kawasaki Frontale | 10 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 5 | 16 |
| 8 | Yokohama F. Marinos | 10 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 4 | 16 |
| 9 | Urawa | 10 | 5 | 0 | 5 | -4 | 15 |
| 10 | Shimizu S-pulse | 10 | 4 | 2 | 4 | -1 | 14 |
| 11 | Fagiano Okayama | 10 | 4 | 1 | 5 | -3 | 13 |
| 12 | Nagoya Grampus | 10 | 4 | 0 | 6 | -4 | 12 |
| 13 | Cerezo Osaka | 10 | 3 | 3 | 4 | -7 | 12 |
| 14 | Mito Hollyhock | 10 | 2 | 3 | 5 | -2 | 9 |
| 15 | V-varen Nagasaki | 10 | 2 | 3 | 5 | -7 | 9 |
| 16 | Kyoto Sanga | 10 | 2 | 2 | 6 | -8 | 8 |
| 17 | Avispa Fukuoka | 10 | 2 | 1 | 7 | -5 | 7 |
| 18 | Gamba Osaka | 10 | 1 | 4 | 5 | -8 | 7 |
| 19 | JEF United Chiba | 10 | 1 | 3 | 6 | -11 | 6 |
| 20 | Tokyo Verdy | 10 | 0 | 4 | 6 | -14 | 4 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Shimizu S-pulse win, at 53.8%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 43% and over 2.5 goals at 40%.
A 54% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.