IAI Stadium Nihondaira · Analysis updated 23:24 UTC
Shimizu S-pulse vs Osaka Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.30 expected goals for Shimizu S-pulse and 1.60 for Osaka, a combined total of 2.90. That distribution gives Osaka the largest share of the 1X2 market at 45%, with the draw at 25%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 55% for over 2.5 goals and 58% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 11%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 45% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Draw/Away
69.1% probability
Expected goals
1.30 – 1.60
Model version
poisson-v1
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Shimizu S-pulse home form
10 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Osaka away threat
Scored in 2 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Osaka to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 45%, against 31% / 25% / 45% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.30 goals for Shimizu S-pulse and 1.60 for Osaka, a combined 2.90 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
56%
Double chance 12
76%
Double chance X2
69%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–111.4%
- 1–29.2%
- 0–18.8%
- 2–17.4%
- 1–07.1%
Recent form
Shimizu S-pulse
- 2026-10-24T05:00:00.000Z · A vs Sanfrecce Hiroshima · 0-4 (L)
- 2026-10-21T10:00:00.000Z · H vs Machida Zelvia · 0-5 (L)
- 2026-10-17T04:00:00.000Z · H vs Gamba Osaka · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-10-14T10:00:00.000Z · A vs Yokohama F. Marinos · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-10-11T06:00:00.000Z · A vs Mito Hollyhock · 2-1 (W)
Osaka
- 2026-10-09T10:00:00.000Z · H vs Kanazawa · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-10-03T08:00:00.000Z · A vs Sagamihara · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-29T10:00:00.000Z · H vs Avispa Fukuoka · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-26T08:00:00.000Z · A vs Kochi United · 4-0 (W)
- 2026-09-18T10:00:00.000Z · H vs Fukushima United · 4-1 (W)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Draw/Away, at 69.1%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 58% and over 2.5 goals at 55%.
A 69% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.