Shimizu S-pulse vs Tokyo Verdy Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 1.29 expected goals for Shimizu S-pulse and 0.97 for Tokyo Verdy, a combined total of 2.26. That distribution gives Shimizu S-pulse the largest share of the 1X2 market at 44%, with the draw at 28%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 39% for over 2.5 goals and 45% for both teams to score, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 14%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 44% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

Model pick

Home/Draw

72.2% probability

High confidenceLow data42/100

Expected goals

1.29 – 0.97

Model version

poisson-v2

Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

Shimizu S-pulse home form
10 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Tokyo Verdy away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Shimizu S-pulse to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 44%, against 44% / 28% / 28% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.29 goals for Shimizu S-pulse and 0.97 for Tokyo Verdy, a combined 2.26 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.

Match result (1X2)

Shimizu S-pulse win44%

Draw28%

Tokyo Verdy win28%

Double chance 1X

72%

Double chance 12

72%

Double chance X2

56%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals66%

Over 2.5 goals39%

Over 3.5 goals19%

Both teams to score45%

Correct score

1–013.5%
1–113.0%
0–010.4%
0–110.1%
2–08.7%

Recent form

Shimizu S-pulse

2026-10-24T05:00:00.000Z · A vs Sanfrecce Hiroshima · 0-4 (L)
2026-10-21T10:00:00.000Z · H vs Machida Zelvia · 0-5 (L)
2026-10-17T04:00:00.000Z · H vs Gamba Osaka · 2-2 (D)
2026-10-14T10:00:00.000Z · A vs Yokohama F. Marinos · 1-2 (L)
2026-10-11T06:00:00.000Z · A vs Mito Hollyhock · 2-1 (W)

Tokyo Verdy

2026-09-29T10:00:00.000Z · A vs Sagan Tosu · 1-2 (L)
2026-09-19T09:30:00.000Z · A vs Urawa · 1-3 (L)
2026-09-13T09:00:00.000Z · H vs JEF United Chiba · 1-1 (D)
2026-09-09T09:30:00.000Z · A vs Biwako Shiga · 1-0 (W)
2026-09-06T10:00:00.000Z · A vs Cerezo Osaka · 0-0 (D)

Head-to-head

Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.

J1 League table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Machida Zelvia	12	8	3	1	20	27
2	Sanfrecce Hiroshima	12	8	2	2	19	26
3	Kashiwa Reysol	12	8	1	3	6	25
4	FC Tokyo	11	7	3	1	13	24
5	Vissel Kobe	12	7	2	3	7	23
6	Kashima	12	6	2	4	4	20
7	Kawasaki Frontale	11	5	4	2	6	19
8	Yokohama F. Marinos	12	4	6	2	4	18
9	Urawa	11	6	0	5	-3	18
10	Fagiano Okayama	11	5	1	5	-1	16
11	Nagoya Grampus	12	4	2	6	-4	14
12	Shimizu S-pulse	12	4	2	6	-10	14
13	Cerezo Osaka	11	3	4	4	-7	13
14	V-varen Nagasaki	11	3	3	5	-3	12
15	Gamba Osaka	12	2	5	5	-7	11
16	Kyoto Sanga	12	2	4	6	-8	10
17	Mito Hollyhock	11	2	3	6	-4	9
18	Tokyo Verdy	12	1	5	6	-12	8
19	Avispa Fukuoka	12	2	1	9	-8	7
20	JEF United Chiba	11	1	3	7	-12	6

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Home/Draw, at 72.2%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–0.

It puts both teams scoring at 45% and over 2.5 goals at 39%.

A 72% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.