Shinnik · Referee E. Rubtsov · Analysis updated 17:19 UTC
Shinnik Yaroslavl vs Spartak Kostroma Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.14 expected goals for Shinnik Yaroslavl and 1.06 for Spartak Kostroma, a combined total of 2.20. That distribution gives Shinnik Yaroslavl the largest share of the 1X2 market at 38%, with the draw at 29%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 38% for over 2.5 goals and 45% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 13%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 38% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
Model pick
Home/Draw
66.6% probability
Expected goals
1.14 – 1.06
Model version
poisson-market-v1
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Shinnik Yaroslavl home form
8 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Spartak Kostroma away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Shinnik Yaroslavl to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 38%, against 38% / 29% / 33% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.14 goals for Shinnik Yaroslavl and 1.06 for Spartak Kostroma, a combined 2.20 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
67%
Double chance 12
71%
Double chance X2
63%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–113.4%
- 1–012.6%
- 0–111.7%
- 0–011.1%
- 2–17.6%
Odds vs model — value finder
Bookmaker prices with the margin removed (1X2 overround 8.5%), compared with our model probability.
No selection clears our 3-point edge threshold — the market looks efficiently priced.
| Market | Selection | Odds | Market % | Model % | Fair odds | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Double chance | Home/Away | 1.36 | 67.9% | 70.9% | 1.41 | +3.0 |
| Both teams to score | No | 1.71 | 53.8% | 55.5% | 1.80 | +1.7 |
| Goals | Under 3.5 | 1.13 | 80.3% | 81.9% | 1.22 | +1.6 |
| Match result | Home | 2.55 | 36.1% | 37.5% | 2.67 | +1.4 |
| Match result | Away | 2.88 | 32.0% | 33.4% | 2.99 | +1.4 |
| Goals | Under 2.5 | 1.51 | 61.7% | 62.3% | 1.61 | +0.6 |
| Goals | Over 2.5 | 2.43 | 38.3% | 37.7% | 2.65 | -0.6 |
| Double chance | Home/Draw | 1.36 | 67.9% | 66.6% | 1.50 | -1.3 |
| Goals | Over 3.5 | 4.60 | 19.7% | 18.1% | 5.52 | -1.6 |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 1.99 | 46.2% | 44.5% | 2.25 | -1.7 |
| Double chance | Draw/Away | 1.44 | 64.2% | 62.5% | 1.60 | -1.7 |
| Match result | Draw | 2.89 | 31.9% | 29.1% | 3.44 | -2.8 |
Market % has the bookmaker margin removed so it is comparable with the model. Edge is model % minus market %; it is an estimate, not a guarantee.
Recent form
Shinnik Yaroslavl
- 2026-10-18T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Veles · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-10-14T16:15:00.000Z · A vs Nizhny Novgorod · 0-4 (L)
- 2026-10-10T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Tekstilshchik · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-09-27T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Ska-khabarovsk · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-09-18T15:30:00.000Z · H vs KAMAZ · 0-1 (L)
Spartak Kostroma
- 2026-10-17T13:30:00.000Z · H vs Leningradets · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-10-13T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Chelyabinsk · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-10-09T16:30:00.000Z · A vs Arsenal Tula · 2-3 (L)
- 2026-09-26T11:30:00.000Z · H vs Ural · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-18T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Volga Ulyanovsk · 1-0 (W)
Head-to-head
- 2026-03-22T13:00:00.000Z · Shinnik Yaroslavl 1-1 Spartak Kostroma (First League)
- 2025-10-25T14:00:00.000Z · Shinnik Yaroslavl 2-2 Spartak Kostroma (First League)
First League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Nizhny Novgorod | 15 | 13 | 1 | 1 | 29 | 40 |
| 2 | FC Sochi | 15 | 10 | 2 | 3 | 11 | 32 |
| 3 | Torpedo Moskva | 15 | 8 | 4 | 3 | 15 | 28 |
| 4 | Ural | 15 | 8 | 4 | 3 | 14 | 28 |
| 5 | Spartak Kostroma | 14 | 8 | 3 | 3 | 7 | 27 |
| 6 | Veles | 16 | 8 | 3 | 5 | 1 | 27 |
| 7 | FC UFA | 15 | 5 | 6 | 4 | 3 | 21 |
| 8 | Volga Ulyanovsk | 16 | 6 | 3 | 7 | -1 | 21 |
| 9 | Shinnik Yaroslavl | 14 | 4 | 8 | 2 | 4 | 20 |
| 10 | Rotor Volgograd | 15 | 5 | 4 | 6 | 5 | 19 |
| 11 | Arsenal Tula | 15 | 5 | 4 | 6 | -10 | 19 |
| 12 | Chelyabinsk | 15 | 4 | 3 | 8 | -7 | 15 |
| 13 | Enisey | 15 | 3 | 5 | 7 | -14 | 14 |
| 14 | Leningradets | 15 | 3 | 5 | 7 | -14 | 14 |
| 15 | KAMAZ | 15 | 3 | 4 | 8 | -8 | 13 |
| 16 | FK Neftekhimik | 15 | 4 | 1 | 10 | -11 | 13 |
| 17 | Ska-khabarovsk | 15 | 2 | 4 | 9 | -10 | 10 |
| 18 | Tekstilshchik | 15 | 2 | 4 | 9 | -14 | 10 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Home/Draw, at 66.6%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 45% and over 2.5 goals at 38%.
A 67% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.