Gyumri City Stadium · Analysis updated 16:38 UTC
Shirak vs Ararat-Armenia Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 0.71 expected goals for Shirak and 1.74 for Ararat-Armenia, a combined total of 2.45. That distribution gives Ararat-Armenia the largest share of the 1X2 market at 62%, with the draw at 23%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 44% for over 2.5 goals and 42% for both teams to score, with 0–1 the single most likely scoreline at 15%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 62% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Ararat-Armenia win
62.1% probability
Expected goals
0.71 – 1.74
Model version
poisson-market-v1
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Shirak home form
6 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Ararat-Armenia away threat
Scored in 5 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 4 of the last 10 meetings.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
38%
Double chance 12
77%
Double chance X2
85%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 0–115.0%
- 0–213.1%
- 1–110.7%
- 1–29.3%
- 0–08.6%
Odds vs model — value finder
Bookmaker prices with the margin removed (1X2 overround 11.8%), compared with our model probability.
Best value: Both teams to score — No at 1.85 (model 58.1% vs market 49.7%, edge +8.4 pts).
| Market | Selection | Odds | Market % | Model % | Fair odds | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Both teams to score | NoValue | 1.85 | 49.7% | 58.1% | 1.72 | +8.4 |
| Double chance | Home/Draw | 2.50 | 37.6% | 37.9% | 2.64 | +0.3 |
| Match result | Draw | 3.90 | 22.9% | 23.1% | 4.33 | +0.2 |
| Match result | Away | 1.44 | 62.1% | 62.1% | 1.61 | -0.0 |
| Match result | Home | 6.00 | 14.9% | 14.8% | 6.76 | -0.1 |
| Double chance | Home/Away | 1.22 | 77.0% | 76.9% | 1.30 | -0.1 |
| Double chance | Draw/Away | 1.10 | 85.4% | 85.2% | 1.17 | -0.2 |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 1.83 | 50.3% | 41.9% | 2.39 | -8.4 |
Market % has the bookmaker margin removed so it is comparable with the model. Edge is model % minus market %; it is an estimate, not a guarantee.
Recent form
Shirak
- 2026-09-20T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Ararat-Armenia · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-09-13T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Pyunik Yerevan · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-09-06T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Sardarapat · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-08-29T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Van · 4-0 (W)
- 2026-08-22T14:00:00.000Z · H vs FC Urartu · 0-1 (L)
Ararat-Armenia
- 2026-10-10T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Alashkert · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-10-03T07:00:00.000Z · A vs Ararat · 4-0 (W)
- 2026-09-20T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Shirak · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-09-16T16:45:00.000Z · H vs Sparta Praha · 1-4 (L)
- 2026-09-11T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Syunik · 3-0 (W)
Head-to-head
- 2026-09-20T14:00:00.000Z · Shirak 1-3 Ararat-Armenia (Premier League)
- 2026-04-20T15:00:00.000Z · Shirak 0-4 Ararat-Armenia (Premier League)
- 2026-04-02T15:00:00.000Z · Shirak 0-2 Ararat-Armenia (Cup)
- 2026-03-04T11:00:00.000Z · Shirak 0-1 Ararat-Armenia (Cup)
- 2025-12-01T10:00:00.000Z · Shirak 1-4 Ararat-Armenia (Premier League)
- 2025-08-24T14:00:00.000Z · Shirak 0-1 Ararat-Armenia (Premier League)
- 2025-05-03T12:00:00.000Z · Shirak 1-5 Ararat-Armenia (Premier League)
- 2024-10-22T15:00:00.000Z · Shirak 0-3 Ararat-Armenia (Premier League)
- 2024-09-19T14:00:00.000Z · Shirak 0-4 Ararat-Armenia (Premier League)
- 2024-05-21T16:00:00.000Z · Shirak 1-1 Ararat-Armenia (Premier League)
Premier League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | FC Noah | 9 | 9 | 0 | 0 | 20 | 27 |
| 2 | Pyunik Yerevan | 9 | 6 | 3 | 0 | 15 | 21 |
| 3 | Ararat-Armenia | 9 | 6 | 2 | 1 | 9 | 20 |
| 4 | Alashkert | 9 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 12 | 16 |
| 5 | FC Urartu | 9 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 12 |
| 6 | Sardarapat | 9 | 3 | 3 | 3 | -2 | 12 |
| 7 | Shirak | 9 | 3 | 1 | 5 | -1 | 10 |
| 8 | Ararat | 9 | 3 | 1 | 5 | -7 | 10 |
| 9 | BKMA | 9 | 2 | 2 | 5 | -7 | 8 |
| 10 | Van | 9 | 2 | 1 | 6 | -15 | 7 |
| 11 | Syunik | 9 | 1 | 2 | 6 | -12 | 5 |
| 12 | Gandzasar | 9 | 1 | 0 | 8 | -14 | 3 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Ararat-Armenia win, at 62.1%. Its single most likely scoreline is 0–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 42% and over 2.5 goals at 44%.
A 62% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.