FC Fortuna Stadium · Analysis updated 14:37 UTC
Shkëndija Haraçinë vs Aresimi Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.31 expected goals for Shkëndija Haraçinë and 0.86 for Aresimi, a combined total of 2.17. That distribution gives Shkëndija Haraçinë the largest share of the 1X2 market at 47%, with the draw at 28%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 37% for over 2.5 goals and 42% for both teams to score, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 15%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 47% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Shkëndija Haraçinë win
47.0% probability
Expected goals
1.31 – 0.86
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Shkëndija Haraçinë home form
4 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
Aresimi away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 7 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Shkëndija Haraçinë to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 47%, against 47% / 28% / 25% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.31 goals for Shkëndija Haraçinë and 0.86 for Aresimi, a combined 2.17 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
75%
Double chance 12
72%
Double chance X2
53%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–014.9%
- 1–112.9%
- 0–011.4%
- 0–19.8%
- 2–09.8%
Recent form
Shkëndija Haraçinë
- 2026-09-19T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Vardar Skopje · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-09-14T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Skopje · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-09T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Detonit Plachkovica · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-09-04T16:30:00.000Z · A vs Bregalnica Štip · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-08-30T14:30:00.000Z · A vs Bashkimi Kumanovo · 2-1 (W)
Aresimi
- 2026-09-24T13:30:00.000Z · A vs Mogila · 12-0 (W)
- 2026-09-21T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Struga · 0-6 (L)
- 2026-09-11T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Shkendija · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-09-07T17:00:00.000Z · A vs Vardar Skopje · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-08-29T14:30:00.000Z · H vs Skopje · 0-0 (D)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
First League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Shkendija | 11 | 7 | 3 | 1 | 14 | 24 |
| 2 | Struga | 11 | 7 | 2 | 2 | 19 | 23 |
| 3 | Vardar Skopje | 11 | 6 | 3 | 2 | 8 | 21 |
| 4 | Tikveš | 10 | 4 | 5 | 1 | 13 | 17 |
| 5 | Sileks | 11 | 4 | 4 | 3 | 8 | 16 |
| 6 | Shkëndija Haraçinë | 11 | 4 | 2 | 5 | -7 | 14 |
| 7 | Bregalnica Štip | 10 | 3 | 1 | 6 | -6 | 10 |
| 8 | Aresimi | 10 | 2 | 4 | 4 | -13 | 10 |
| 9 | Bashkimi Kumanovo | 10 | 2 | 1 | 7 | -20 | 7 |
| 10 | Skopje | 11 | 0 | 3 | 8 | -16 | 3 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Shkëndija Haraçinë win, at 47.0%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 42% and over 2.5 goals at 37%.
A 47% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.