· Analysis updated 08:02 UTC
Shkëndija Haraçinë vs Pelister Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 0.92 expected goals for Shkëndija Haraçinë and 1.49 for Pelister, a combined total of 2.41. That distribution gives Pelister the largest share of the 1X2 market at 50%, with the draw at 26%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 43% for over 2.5 goals and 47% for both teams to score, with 0–1 the single most likely scoreline at 13%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 50% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Pelister win
50.3% probability
Expected goals
0.92 – 1.49
Model version
poisson-v1
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Shkëndija Haraçinë home form
4 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
Pelister away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Pelister to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 50%, against 23% / 26% / 50% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 0.92 goals for Shkëndija Haraçinë and 1.49 for Pelister, a combined 2.41 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
50%
Double chance 12
74%
Double chance X2
77%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 0–113.3%
- 1–112.3%
- 0–29.9%
- 1–29.2%
- 0–09.0%
Recent form
Shkëndija Haraçinë
- 2026-10-23T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Sileks · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-10-17T10:00:00.000Z · H vs Struga · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-10-11T11:00:00.000Z · H vs Shkendija · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-19T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Vardar Skopje · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-09-14T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Skopje · 1-0 (W)
Pelister
- 2026-10-24T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Novaci · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-10-17T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Osogovo · 3-0 (W)
- 2026-10-11T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Belasica · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-09-19T13:45:00.000Z · H vs Ohrid · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-13T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Shkupi 1927 · 4-0 (W)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Pelister win, at 50.3%. Its single most likely scoreline is 0–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 47% and over 2.5 goals at 43%.
A 50% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.