Gradski stadion Gostivar · Analysis updated 15:37 UTC
Shkendija vs Bashkimi Kumanovo Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 3.07 expected goals for Shkendija and 0.38 for Bashkimi Kumanovo, a combined total of 3.45. That distribution gives Shkendija the largest share of the 1X2 market at 90%, with the draw at 8%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 67% for over 2.5 goals and 30% for both teams to score, with 3–0 the single most likely scoreline at 15%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 90% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Shkendija win
89.5% probability
Expected goals
3.07 – 0.38
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Shkendija home form
10 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Bashkimi Kumanovo away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 7 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 5 of the last 5 meetings.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
98%
Double chance 12
92%
Double chance X2
11%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 3–015.4%
- 2–015.0%
- 4–011.8%
- 1–09.8%
- 5–07.3%
Recent form
Shkendija
- 2026-09-26T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Kamjani · 3-0 (W)
- 2026-09-18T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Bashkimi Kumanovo · 4-1 (W)
- 2026-09-11T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Aresimi · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-09-04T17:00:00.000Z · H vs Tikveš · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-08-28T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Sileks · 2-0 (W)
Bashkimi Kumanovo
- 2026-10-12T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Struga · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-10-04T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Gjilani · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-09-27T17:00:00.000Z · A vs Drita · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-18T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Shkendija · 1-4 (L)
- 2026-09-12T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Vardar Skopje · 3-3 (D)
Head-to-head
- 2026-09-18T14:00:00.000Z · Shkendija 4-1 Bashkimi Kumanovo (First League)
- 2026-04-27T14:00:00.000Z · Shkendija 2-3 Bashkimi Kumanovo (First League)
- 2025-12-06T12:00:00.000Z · Shkendija 3-1 Bashkimi Kumanovo (First League)
- 2025-10-16T12:00:00.000Z · Shkendija 5-1 Bashkimi Kumanovo (Friendlies Clubs)
- 2025-09-12T13:30:00.000Z · Shkendija 2-1 Bashkimi Kumanovo (First League)
First League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Shkendija | 10 | 7 | 2 | 1 | 14 | 23 |
| 2 | Struga | 10 | 6 | 2 | 2 | 15 | 20 |
| 3 | Vardar Skopje | 10 | 6 | 2 | 2 | 8 | 20 |
| 4 | Tikveš | 9 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 13 | 16 |
| 5 | Shkëndija Haraçinë | 10 | 4 | 2 | 4 | -5 | 14 |
| 6 | Sileks | 10 | 3 | 4 | 3 | 6 | 13 |
| 7 | Bregalnica Štip | 10 | 3 | 1 | 6 | -6 | 10 |
| 8 | Aresimi | 9 | 2 | 3 | 4 | -13 | 9 |
| 9 | Bashkimi Kumanovo | 10 | 2 | 1 | 7 | -20 | 7 |
| 10 | Skopje | 10 | 0 | 3 | 7 | -12 | 3 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Shkendija win, at 89.5%. Its single most likely scoreline is 3–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 30% and over 2.5 goals at 67%.
A 90% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.