FFM - Teren na Fudbalska Federacija na Makedonija · Analysis updated 00:10 UTC
Shkendija vs Bregalnica Štip Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 2.58 expected goals for Shkendija and 0.95 for Bregalnica Štip, a combined total of 3.54. That distribution gives Shkendija the largest share of the 1X2 market at 72%, with the draw at 16%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 68% for over 2.5 goals and 57% for both teams to score, with 2–0 the single most likely scoreline at 10%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 72% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Shkendija win
72.3% probability
Expected goals
2.58 – 0.95
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Shkendija home form
7 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
Bregalnica Štip away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 4 of the last 10 meetings.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
88%
Double chance 12
84%
Double chance X2
28%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 2–09.7%
- 2–19.3%
- 3–08.4%
- 3–18.0%
- 1–07.5%
Recent form
Shkendija
- 2026-10-24T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Vardar Skopje · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-10-18T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Skopje · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-10-11T11:00:00.000Z · A vs Shkëndija Haraçinë · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-10-03T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Llapi · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-26T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Kamjani · 3-0 (W)
Bregalnica Štip
- 2026-09-23T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Skopje · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-13T13:45:00.000Z · A vs Sileks · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-09-09T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Teteks · 4-1 (W)
- 2026-09-04T16:30:00.000Z · H vs Shkëndija Haraçinë · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-08-28T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Struga · 0-4 (L)
Head-to-head
- 2026-08-16T17:00:00.000Z · Shkendija 4-1 Bregalnica Štip (First League)
- 2024-03-31T13:00:00.000Z · Shkendija 4-1 Bregalnica Štip (First League)
- 2023-11-25T12:00:00.000Z · Shkendija 2-2 Bregalnica Štip (First League)
- 2023-08-23T14:30:00.000Z · Shkendija 2-0 Bregalnica Štip (First League)
- 2023-04-22T14:00:00.000Z · Shkendija 1-0 Bregalnica Štip (First League)
- 2023-03-05T13:00:00.000Z · Shkendija 0-0 Bregalnica Štip (First League)
- 2022-10-09T12:00:00.000Z · Shkendija 0-0 Bregalnica Štip (First League)
- 2022-04-17T14:00:00.000Z · Shkendija 0-0 Bregalnica Štip (First League)
- 2021-11-21T12:00:00.000Z · Shkendija 1-0 Bregalnica Štip (First League)
- 2021-08-18T15:00:00.000Z · Shkendija 3-3 Bregalnica Štip (First League)
First League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Shkendija | 11 | 7 | 3 | 1 | 14 | 24 |
| 2 | Struga | 11 | 7 | 2 | 2 | 19 | 23 |
| 3 | Vardar Skopje | 11 | 6 | 3 | 2 | 8 | 21 |
| 4 | Tikveš | 11 | 5 | 5 | 1 | 15 | 20 |
| 5 | Sileks | 11 | 4 | 4 | 3 | 8 | 16 |
| 6 | Shkëndija Haraçinë | 11 | 4 | 2 | 5 | -7 | 14 |
| 7 | Bregalnica Štip | 11 | 4 | 1 | 6 | -5 | 13 |
| 8 | Aresimi | 11 | 2 | 4 | 5 | -14 | 10 |
| 9 | Bashkimi Kumanovo | 11 | 2 | 1 | 8 | -22 | 7 |
| 10 | Skopje | 11 | 0 | 3 | 8 | -16 | 3 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Shkendija win, at 72.3%. Its single most likely scoreline is 2–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 57% and over 2.5 goals at 68%.
A 72% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.