FFM - Teren na Fudbalska Federacija na Makedonija · Analysis updated 07:51 UTC
Shkendija vs Skopje Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 2.64 expected goals for Shkendija and 0.60 for Skopje, a combined total of 3.23. That distribution gives Shkendija the largest share of the 1X2 market at 81%, with the draw at 13%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 63% for over 2.5 goals and 42% for both teams to score, with 2–0 the single most likely scoreline at 14%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 81% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Shkendija win
80.8% probability
Expected goals
2.64 – 0.60
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Shkendija home form
10 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Skopje away threat
Scored in 1 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 1 of the last 10 meetings.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
94%
Double chance 12
87%
Double chance X2
19%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 2–013.7%
- 3–012.1%
- 1–010.4%
- 2–18.2%
- 4–07.9%
Recent form
Shkendija
- 2026-09-26T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Kamjani · 3-0 (W)
- 2026-09-18T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Bashkimi Kumanovo · 4-1 (W)
- 2026-09-11T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Aresimi · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-09-04T17:00:00.000Z · H vs Tikveš · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-08-28T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Sileks · 2-0 (W)
Skopje
- 2026-10-18T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Shkendija · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-10-11T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Vardar Skopje · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-23T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Bregalnica Štip · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-14T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Shkëndija Haraçinë · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-09T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Kozuv Gevgelija · 1-0 (W)
Head-to-head
- 2026-07-26T17:00:00.000Z · Shkendija 3-0 Skopje (First League)
- 2024-01-25T13:00:00.000Z · Shkendija 6-0 Skopje (Friendlies Clubs)
- 2023-03-19T14:00:00.000Z · Shkendija 2-0 Skopje (First League)
- 2022-10-26T12:00:00.000Z · Shkendija 1-0 Skopje (First League)
- 2022-10-05T12:00:00.000Z · Shkendija 5-0 Skopje (Cup)
- 2022-08-17T15:00:00.000Z · Shkendija 2-0 Skopje (First League)
- 2022-03-19T14:00:00.000Z · Shkendija 2-0 Skopje (First League)
- 2021-12-12T12:00:00.000Z · Shkendija 1-0 Skopje (First League)
- 2021-09-19T13:00:00.000Z · Shkendija 2-0 Skopje (First League)
- 2018-05-13T14:30:00.000Z · Shkendija 3-1 Skopje (First League)
First League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Shkendija | 10 | 7 | 2 | 1 | 14 | 23 |
| 2 | Struga | 10 | 6 | 2 | 2 | 15 | 20 |
| 3 | Vardar Skopje | 10 | 6 | 2 | 2 | 8 | 20 |
| 4 | Tikveš | 10 | 4 | 5 | 1 | 13 | 17 |
| 5 | Shkëndija Haraçinë | 10 | 4 | 2 | 4 | -5 | 14 |
| 6 | Sileks | 10 | 3 | 4 | 3 | 6 | 13 |
| 7 | Bregalnica Štip | 10 | 3 | 1 | 6 | -6 | 10 |
| 8 | Aresimi | 10 | 2 | 4 | 4 | -13 | 10 |
| 9 | Bashkimi Kumanovo | 10 | 2 | 1 | 7 | -20 | 7 |
| 10 | Skopje | 10 | 0 | 3 | 7 | -12 | 3 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Shkendija win, at 80.8%. Its single most likely scoreline is 2–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 42% and over 2.5 goals at 63%.
A 81% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.