FFM - Teren na Fudbalska Federacija na Makedonija · Analysis updated 15:37 UTC
Shkendija vs Struga Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.95 expected goals for Shkendija and 0.88 for Struga, a combined total of 2.83. That distribution gives Shkendija the largest share of the 1X2 market at 63%, with the draw at 21%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 54% for over 2.5 goals and 50% for both teams to score, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 12%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 63% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Shkendija win
62.5% probability
Expected goals
1.95 – 0.88
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Shkendija home form
10 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Struga away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Shkendija to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 63%, against 63% / 21% / 16% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.95 goals for Shkendija and 0.88 for Struga, a combined 2.83 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
84%
Double chance 12
79%
Double chance X2
38%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–011.6%
- 2–011.3%
- 1–110.1%
- 2–19.9%
- 3–07.3%
Recent form
Shkendija
- 2026-09-26T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Kamjani · 3-0 (W)
- 2026-09-18T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Bashkimi Kumanovo · 4-1 (W)
- 2026-09-11T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Aresimi · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-09-04T17:00:00.000Z · H vs Tikveš · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-08-28T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Sileks · 2-0 (W)
Struga
- 2026-09-21T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Aresimi · 6-0 (W)
- 2026-09-11T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Tikveš · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-09-07T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Sileks · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-02T14:30:00.000Z · A vs Pobeda Valandovo · 10-1 (W)
- 2026-08-28T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Bregalnica Štip · 4-0 (W)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
First League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Shkendija | 9 | 6 | 2 | 1 | 12 | 20 |
| 2 | Struga | 9 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 13 | 17 |
| 3 | Vardar Skopje | 9 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 7 | 17 |
| 4 | Tikveš | 9 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 13 | 16 |
| 5 | Shkëndija Haraçinë | 9 | 4 | 2 | 3 | -3 | 14 |
| 6 | Sileks | 9 | 2 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 10 |
| 7 | Bregalnica Štip | 9 | 3 | 1 | 5 | -5 | 10 |
| 8 | Aresimi | 9 | 2 | 3 | 4 | -13 | 9 |
| 9 | Bashkimi Kumanovo | 9 | 2 | 1 | 6 | -17 | 7 |
| 10 | Skopje | 9 | 0 | 3 | 6 | -10 | 3 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Shkendija win, at 62.5%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 50% and over 2.5 goals at 54%.
A 63% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.