· Analysis updated 02:12 UTC
Shkendija vs Vardar Skopje Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.54 expected goals for Shkendija and 1.04 for Vardar Skopje, a combined total of 2.58. That distribution gives Shkendija the largest share of the 1X2 market at 49%, with the draw at 26%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 48% for over 2.5 goals and 51% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 12%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 49% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Shkendija win
48.8% probability
Expected goals
1.54 – 1.04
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Shkendija home form
7 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
Vardar Skopje away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Shkendija to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 49%, against 49% / 26% / 26% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.54 goals for Shkendija and 1.04 for Vardar Skopje, a combined 2.58 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
74%
Double chance 12
74%
Double chance X2
51%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–112.1%
- 1–011.7%
- 2–19.3%
- 2–09.0%
- 0–17.9%
Recent form
Shkendija
- 2026-10-24T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Vardar Skopje · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-10-18T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Skopje · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-10-11T11:00:00.000Z · A vs Shkëndija Haraçinë · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-10-03T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Llapi · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-26T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Kamjani · 3-0 (W)
Vardar Skopje
- 2026-09-19T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Shkëndija Haraçinë · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-09-12T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Bashkimi Kumanovo · 3-3 (D)
- 2026-09-07T17:00:00.000Z · H vs Aresimi · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-09-03T14:30:00.000Z · A vs Ovce Pole · 5-0 (W)
- 2026-08-31T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Tikveš · 1-1 (D)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
First League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Shkendija | 11 | 7 | 3 | 1 | 14 | 24 |
| 2 | Struga | 11 | 7 | 2 | 2 | 19 | 23 |
| 3 | Vardar Skopje | 11 | 6 | 3 | 2 | 8 | 21 |
| 4 | Tikveš | 11 | 5 | 5 | 1 | 15 | 20 |
| 5 | Sileks | 11 | 4 | 4 | 3 | 8 | 16 |
| 6 | Shkëndija Haraçinë | 11 | 4 | 2 | 5 | -7 | 14 |
| 7 | Bregalnica Štip | 11 | 4 | 1 | 6 | -5 | 13 |
| 8 | Aresimi | 11 | 2 | 4 | 5 | -14 | 10 |
| 9 | Bashkimi Kumanovo | 11 | 2 | 1 | 8 | -22 | 7 |
| 10 | Skopje | 11 | 0 | 3 | 8 | -16 | 3 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Shkendija win, at 48.8%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 51% and over 2.5 goals at 48%.
A 49% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.