Stadiumi Shkumbini · Analysis updated 00:16 UTC
Shkumbini Peqin vs Oriku Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 0.47 expected goals for Shkumbini Peqin and 1.90 for Oriku, a combined total of 2.36. That distribution gives Oriku the largest share of the 1X2 market at 72%, with the draw at 20%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 42% for over 2.5 goals and 32% for both teams to score, with 0–1 the single most likely scoreline at 18%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 72% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Oriku win
72.0% probability
Expected goals
0.47 – 1.90
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Shkumbini Peqin home form
6 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
Oriku away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 1 of the last 5 meetings.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
28%
Double chance 12
80%
Double chance X2
92%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 0–117.9%
- 0–216.9%
- 0–310.7%
- 0–09.4%
- 1–18.3%
Recent form
Shkumbini Peqin
- 2025-10-15T11:30:00.000Z · A vs Besa Kavajë · 0-5 (L)
- 2025-04-05T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Luftëtari · 1-6 (L)
- 2025-03-30T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Maliqi · 1-0 (W)
- 2025-03-26T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Tomori Berat · 1-4 (L)
- 2025-03-09T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Oriku · 1-2 (L)
Oriku
- 2025-10-15T11:30:00.000Z · A vs Luftëtari · 0-2 (L)
- 2025-04-26T14:00:00.000Z · A vs FK Kukesi · 0-1 (L)
- 2025-04-19T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Tomori Berat · 3-2 (W)
- 2025-04-12T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Butrinti Sarandë · 1-1 (D)
- 2025-04-05T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Memaliaj · 7-0 (W)
Head-to-head
- 2025-03-09T13:00:00.000Z · Shkumbini Peqin 1-2 Oriku (2nd Division - Group B)
- 2024-11-10T13:00:00.000Z · Shkumbini Peqin 0-1 Oriku (2nd Division - Group B)
- 2024-05-09T14:00:00.000Z · Shkumbini Peqin 2-0 Oriku (2nd Division - Play-offs)
- 2024-02-11T12:30:00.000Z · Shkumbini Peqin 1-0 Oriku (2nd Division - Group B)
- 2023-09-24T13:00:00.000Z · Shkumbini Peqin 0-1 Oriku (2nd Division - Group B)
2nd Division - Group B table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Luftëtari | 20 | 16 | 3 | 1 | 45 | 51 |
| 2 | Oriku | 20 | 16 | 3 | 1 | 32 | 51 |
| 3 | Tomori Berat | 20 | 11 | 2 | 7 | 18 | 35 |
| 4 | Devolli | 20 | 10 | 4 | 6 | 1 | 34 |
| 5 | Butrinti Sarandë | 20 | 10 | 3 | 7 | 16 | 33 |
| 6 | Delvina | 20 | 7 | 5 | 8 | 1 | 26 |
| 7 | Shkumbini Peqin | 20 | 5 | 5 | 10 | -14 | 20 |
| 8 | Maliqi | 20 | 6 | 2 | 12 | -11 | 20 |
| 9 | Këlcyra | 20 | 5 | 5 | 10 | -12 | 20 |
| 10 | Turbina Cërrik | 20 | 6 | 1 | 13 | -12 | 19 |
| 11 | Memaliaj | 20 | 1 | 1 | 18 | -64 | 4 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Oriku win, at 72.0%. Its single most likely scoreline is 0–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 32% and over 2.5 goals at 42%.
A 72% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.