Sholing vs Berkhamsted Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 1.17 expected goals for Sholing and 1.58 for Berkhamsted, a combined total of 2.75. That distribution gives Berkhamsted the largest share of the 1X2 market at 47%, with the draw at 25%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 52% for over 2.5 goals and 55% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 12%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 47% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.

Model pick

Berkhamsted win

46.6% probability

Low confidencePartial model70/100

Expected goals

1.17 – 1.58

Model version

poisson-v2

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

Sholing home form
9 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Berkhamsted away threat
Scored in 2 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Berkhamsted to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 47%, against 28% / 25% / 47% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.17 goals for Sholing and 1.58 for Berkhamsted, a combined 2.75 — an open game on paper.

Match result (1X2)

Sholing win28%

Draw25%

Berkhamsted win47%

Double chance 1X

53%

Double chance 12

75%

Double chance X2

72%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals76%

Over 2.5 goals52%

Over 3.5 goals30%

Both teams to score55%

Correct score

1–111.8%
0–110.1%
1–29.3%
0–27.9%
1–07.5%

Recent form

Sholing

2026-10-13T18:45:00.000Z · H vs Chichester City · 2-3 (L)
2026-10-10T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Frome Town · 1-1 (D)
2026-10-03T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Ebbsfleet United · 2-1 (W)
2026-09-29T18:45:00.000Z · H vs Berkhamsted · 2-0 (W)
2026-09-26T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Yate Town · 0-0 (D)

Berkhamsted

2026-10-03T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Redditch United · 2-0 (W)
2026-09-29T18:45:00.000Z · A vs Sholing · 0-2 (L)
2026-09-26T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Chatham Town · 3-1 (W)
2026-09-22T18:45:00.000Z · H vs Hanworth Villa · 1-2 (L)
2026-09-19T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Hendon · 4-1 (W)

Head-to-head

Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.

Non League Premier - Southern South table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Poole Town	12	9	0	3	9	27
2	Uxbridge	11	8	2	1	15	26
3	Bath City	13	8	2	3	9	26
4	Hanworth Villa	13	7	3	3	10	24
5	Plymouth Parkway	11	7	2	2	14	23
6	Chichester City	13	7	1	5	2	22
7	Taunton Town	12	6	1	5	7	19
8	Chertsey Town	12	5	4	3	7	19
9	Frome Town	13	5	4	4	4	19
10	Wimborne Town	11	5	3	3	11	18
11	Gosport Borough	13	5	3	5	2	18
12	Berkhamsted	12	5	1	6	-2	16
13	Bracknell Town	13	4	2	7	-14	14
14	Yate Town	12	3	4	5	-9	13
15	Evesham United	13	4	1	8	-11	13
16	Sholing	11	3	3	5	-4	12
17	Basingstoke Town	12	3	3	6	-6	12
18	Hanwell Town	11	2	5	4	-4	11
19	Malvern Town	13	3	2	8	-15	11
20	Gloucester City	10	2	4	4	-3	10
21	Havant & Wville	13	2	3	8	-8	9
22	Chippenham Town	12	2	3	7	-14	9

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Berkhamsted win, at 46.6%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.

It puts both teams scoring at 55% and over 2.5 goals at 52%.

A 47% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.