Sholing vs Malvern Town Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 2.16 expected goals for Sholing and 1.36 for Malvern Town, a combined total of 3.52. That distribution gives Sholing the largest share of the 1X2 market at 56%, with the draw at 21%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 68% for over 2.5 goals and 66% for both teams to score, with 2–1 the single most likely scoreline at 9%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 56% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

Model pick

Sholing win

55.8% probability

Moderate confidenceLow data42/100

Expected goals

2.16 – 1.36

Model version

poisson-v2

Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

Sholing home form
6 points from their last 3 home matches in our dataset.
Malvern Town away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Sholing to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 56%, against 56% / 21% / 24% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 2.16 goals for Sholing and 1.36 for Malvern Town, a combined 3.52 — an open game on paper.

Match result (1X2)

Sholing win56%

Draw21%

Malvern Town win24%

Double chance 1X

76%

Double chance 12

80%

Double chance X2

44%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals87%

Over 2.5 goals68%

Over 3.5 goals47%

Both teams to score66%

Correct score

2–19.4%
1–18.7%
2–06.9%
3–16.8%
1–06.4%

Recent form

Sholing

2026-10-24T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Weymouth · 2-3 (L)
2026-10-20T18:45:00.000Z · A vs Yate Town · 1-1 (D)
2026-10-17T14:00:00.000Z · H vs SE Dons · 2-0 (W)
2026-10-13T18:45:00.000Z · H vs Chichester City · 2-3 (L)
2026-10-10T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Frome Town · 1-1 (D)

Malvern Town

2026-10-20T18:45:00.000Z · A vs Uxbridge · 0-3 (L)
2026-10-17T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Frome Town · 2-0 (W)
2026-10-13T18:45:00.000Z · H vs Yate Town · 3-2 (W)
2026-10-10T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Basingstoke Town · 1-4 (L)
2026-09-29T18:45:00.000Z · A vs Bath City · 1-2 (L)

Head-to-head

Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.

Non League Premier - Southern South table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Poole Town	12	9	0	3	9	27
2	Uxbridge	11	8	2	1	15	26
3	Bath City	13	8	2	3	9	26
4	Hanworth Villa	13	7	3	3	10	24
5	Plymouth Parkway	12	7	2	3	12	23
6	Chichester City	13	7	1	5	2	22
7	Taunton Town	12	6	1	5	7	19
8	Chertsey Town	12	5	4	3	7	19
9	Frome Town	13	5	4	4	4	19
10	Wimborne Town	11	5	3	3	11	18
11	Gosport Borough	13	5	3	5	2	18
12	Berkhamsted	12	5	1	6	-2	16
13	Basingstoke Town	13	4	3	6	-4	15
14	Bracknell Town	13	4	2	7	-14	14
15	Yate Town	12	3	4	5	-9	13
16	Evesham United	13	4	1	8	-11	13
17	Sholing	11	3	3	5	-4	12
18	Hanwell Town	11	2	5	4	-4	11
19	Malvern Town	13	3	2	8	-15	11
20	Gloucester City	10	2	4	4	-3	10
21	Havant & Wville	13	2	3	8	-8	9
22	Chippenham Town	12	2	3	7	-14	9

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Sholing win, at 55.8%. Its single most likely scoreline is 2–1.

It puts both teams scoring at 66% and over 2.5 goals at 68%.

A 56% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.