St. Mary's Stadium · Analysis updated 17:38 UTC
Sholing vs SE Dons Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.43 expected goals for Sholing and 1.56 for SE Dons, a combined total of 2.99. That distribution gives SE Dons the largest share of the 1X2 market at 41%, with the draw at 24%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 58% for over 2.5 goals and 60% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 11%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 41% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Draw/Away
65.0% probability
Expected goals
1.43 – 1.56
Model version
poisson-v1
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Sholing home form
9 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Most likely outcome
The model rates SE Dons to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 41%, against 35% / 24% / 41% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.43 goals for Sholing and 1.56 for SE Dons, a combined 2.99 — an open game on paper.
Goals markets
Over 2.5 goals lands at 58% and both teams to score at 60%, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 11%.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
59%
Double chance 12
76%
Double chance X2
65%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–111.2%
- 1–28.7%
- 2–18.0%
- 0–17.8%
- 1–07.2%
Recent form
Sholing
- 2026-10-13T18:45:00.000Z · H vs Chichester City · 2-3 (L)
- 2026-10-10T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Frome Town · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-10-03T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Ebbsfleet United · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-29T18:45:00.000Z · H vs Berkhamsted · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-09-26T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Yate Town · 0-0 (D)
SE Dons
- 2026-10-03T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Weymouth · 5-1 (W)
- 2026-09-19T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Chichester City · 3-2 (W)
- 2026-09-05T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Erith Town · 2-0 (W)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Draw/Away, at 65.0%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 60% and over 2.5 goals at 58%.
A 65% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.