Lemon Gas Stadium · Referee G. Tawara · Analysis updated 17:23 UTC
Shonan Bellmare vs Blaublitz Akita Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.15 expected goals for Shonan Bellmare and 0.84 for Blaublitz Akita, a combined total of 1.99. That distribution gives Shonan Bellmare the largest share of the 1X2 market at 43%, with the draw at 30%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 32% for over 2.5 goals and 39% for both teams to score, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 16%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 43% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Home/Draw
73.2% probability
Expected goals
1.15 – 0.84
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Shonan Bellmare home form
7 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
Blaublitz Akita away threat
Scored in 2 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Shonan Bellmare to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 43%, against 43% / 30% / 27% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.15 goals for Shonan Bellmare and 0.84 for Blaublitz Akita, a combined 1.99 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
73%
Double chance 12
70%
Double chance X2
57%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–015.7%
- 0–013.6%
- 1–113.2%
- 0–111.5%
- 2–09.0%
Recent form
Shonan Bellmare
- 2026-09-26T08:00:00.000Z · A vs Imabari · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-19T10:00:00.000Z · H vs Blaublitz Akita · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-12T09:30:00.000Z · A vs Vanraure Hachinohe · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-09T10:00:00.000Z · A vs Matsumoto Yamaga · 3-3 (D)
- 2026-09-05T10:00:00.000Z · H vs Vegalta Sendai · 1-3 (L)
Blaublitz Akita
- 2026-10-11T06:00:00.000Z · A vs Iwaki · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-10-04T05:00:00.000Z · H vs Sagan Tosu · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-26T08:00:00.000Z · H vs Albirex Niigata · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-09-19T10:00:00.000Z · A vs Shonan Bellmare · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-12T09:00:00.000Z · H vs Tokushima Vortis · 4-1 (W)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
J2 League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Vegalta Sendai | 11 | 7 | 3 | 1 | 10 | 24 |
| 2 | Omiya Ardija | 11 | 5 | 5 | 1 | 10 | 20 |
| 3 | Albirex Niigata | 11 | 6 | 2 | 3 | -4 | 20 |
| 4 | Kataller Toyama | 11 | 5 | 4 | 2 | 9 | 19 |
| 5 | Yokohama FC | 11 | 5 | 3 | 3 | 6 | 18 |
| 6 | Shonan Bellmare | 11 | 4 | 6 | 1 | 2 | 18 |
| 7 | Oita Trinita | 11 | 4 | 5 | 2 | 7 | 17 |
| 8 | Iwaki | 11 | 5 | 0 | 6 | 1 | 15 |
| 9 | Fujieda MYFC | 11 | 3 | 5 | 3 | 2 | 14 |
| 10 | Tegevajaro Miyazaki | 11 | 3 | 5 | 3 | 0 | 14 |
| 11 | Jubilo Iwata | 11 | 4 | 2 | 5 | -1 | 14 |
| 12 | Sagan Tosu | 11 | 4 | 2 | 5 | -2 | 14 |
| 13 | Tokushima Vortis | 11 | 4 | 2 | 5 | -2 | 14 |
| 14 | Montedio Yamagata | 11 | 4 | 1 | 6 | 2 | 13 |
| 15 | Blaublitz Akita | 11 | 3 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 13 |
| 16 | Tochigi City | 11 | 3 | 2 | 6 | -1 | 11 |
| 17 | Consadole Sapporo | 11 | 3 | 2 | 6 | -6 | 11 |
| 18 | Imabari | 11 | 3 | 2 | 6 | -8 | 11 |
| 19 | Vanraure Hachinohe | 11 | 3 | 2 | 6 | -11 | 11 |
| 20 | Ventforet Kofu | 11 | 3 | 1 | 7 | -14 | 10 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Home/Draw, at 73.2%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 39% and over 2.5 goals at 32%.
A 73% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.