Lemon Gas Stadium · Analysis updated 03:34 UTC
Shonan Bellmare vs Reinmeer Aomori Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.62 expected goals for Shonan Bellmare and 1.68 for Reinmeer Aomori, a combined total of 3.30. That distribution gives Reinmeer Aomori the largest share of the 1X2 market at 40%, with the draw at 23%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 64% for over 2.5 goals and 65% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 10%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 40% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Draw/Away
62.7% probability
Expected goals
1.62 – 1.68
Model version
poisson-v1
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Shonan Bellmare home form
7 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
Reinmeer Aomori away threat
Scored in 2 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Reinmeer Aomori to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 40%, against 37% / 23% / 40% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.62 goals for Shonan Bellmare and 1.68 for Reinmeer Aomori, a combined 3.30 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
60%
Double chance 12
77%
Double chance X2
63%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–110.0%
- 1–28.4%
- 2–18.1%
- 2–26.8%
- 0–16.2%
Recent form
Shonan Bellmare
- 2026-09-26T08:00:00.000Z · A vs Imabari · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-19T10:00:00.000Z · H vs Blaublitz Akita · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-12T09:30:00.000Z · A vs Vanraure Hachinohe · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-09T10:00:00.000Z · A vs Matsumoto Yamaga · 3-3 (D)
- 2026-09-05T10:00:00.000Z · H vs Vegalta Sendai · 1-3 (L)
Reinmeer Aomori
- 2026-08-26T10:00:00.000Z · A vs Shonan Bellmare · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-08-19T09:00:00.000Z · H vs Akita University · 15-0 (W)
- 2025-11-23T04:00:00.000Z · A vs TIAMO Hirakata · 1-5 (L)
- 2025-11-16T04:00:00.000Z · H vs Verspah Oita · 0-3 (L)
- 2025-11-09T04:00:00.000Z · H vs Porvenir Asuka · 3-1 (W)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Draw/Away, at 62.7%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 65% and over 2.5 goals at 64%.
A 63% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.