Lemon Gas Stadium · Analysis updated 17:45 UTC
Shonan Bellmare vs Sagan Tosu Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.25 expected goals for Shonan Bellmare and 0.79 for Sagan Tosu, a combined total of 2.04. That distribution gives Shonan Bellmare the largest share of the 1X2 market at 47%, with the draw at 29%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 34% for over 2.5 goals and 39% for both teams to score, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 16%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 47% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
Model pick
Shonan Bellmare win
47.1% probability
Expected goals
1.25 – 0.79
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Shonan Bellmare home form
7 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
Sagan Tosu away threat
Scored in 2 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Shonan Bellmare to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 47%, against 47% / 29% / 24% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.25 goals for Shonan Bellmare and 0.79 for Sagan Tosu, a combined 2.04 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
77%
Double chance 12
71%
Double chance X2
53%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–016.2%
- 0–013.0%
- 1–112.9%
- 0–110.3%
- 2–010.1%
Recent form
Shonan Bellmare
- 2026-09-26T08:00:00.000Z · A vs Imabari · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-19T10:00:00.000Z · H vs Blaublitz Akita · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-12T09:30:00.000Z · A vs Vanraure Hachinohe · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-09T10:00:00.000Z · A vs Matsumoto Yamaga · 3-3 (D)
- 2026-09-05T10:00:00.000Z · H vs Vegalta Sendai · 1-3 (L)
Sagan Tosu
- 2026-10-04T05:00:00.000Z · A vs Blaublitz Akita · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-29T10:00:00.000Z · H vs Tokyo Verdy · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-26T08:00:00.000Z · A vs Montedio Yamagata · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-09-23T08:00:00.000Z · A vs Vissel Kobe · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-19T10:00:00.000Z · H vs Iwaki · 1-3 (L)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
J2 League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Vegalta Sendai | 12 | 8 | 3 | 1 | 12 | 27 |
| 2 | Albirex Niigata | 12 | 7 | 2 | 3 | -3 | 23 |
| 3 | Kataller Toyama | 12 | 6 | 4 | 2 | 12 | 22 |
| 4 | Yokohama FC | 12 | 6 | 3 | 3 | 9 | 21 |
| 5 | Omiya Ardija | 12 | 5 | 5 | 2 | 7 | 20 |
| 6 | Shonan Bellmare | 12 | 4 | 7 | 1 | 2 | 19 |
| 7 | Oita Trinita | 12 | 4 | 6 | 2 | 7 | 18 |
| 8 | Tegevajaro Miyazaki | 12 | 4 | 5 | 3 | 1 | 17 |
| 9 | Iwaki | 12 | 5 | 1 | 6 | 1 | 16 |
| 10 | Fujieda MYFC | 12 | 3 | 6 | 3 | 2 | 15 |
| 11 | Jubilo Iwata | 12 | 4 | 3 | 5 | -1 | 15 |
| 12 | Sagan Tosu | 12 | 4 | 2 | 6 | -3 | 14 |
| 13 | Tokushima Vortis | 12 | 4 | 2 | 6 | -3 | 14 |
| 14 | Consadole Sapporo | 12 | 4 | 2 | 6 | -4 | 14 |
| 15 | Vanraure Hachinohe | 12 | 4 | 2 | 6 | -10 | 14 |
| 16 | Montedio Yamagata | 12 | 4 | 1 | 7 | 0 | 13 |
| 17 | Blaublitz Akita | 12 | 3 | 4 | 5 | -1 | 13 |
| 18 | Tochigi City | 12 | 3 | 3 | 6 | -1 | 12 |
| 19 | Imabari | 12 | 3 | 2 | 7 | -10 | 11 |
| 20 | Ventforet Kofu | 12 | 3 | 1 | 8 | -17 | 10 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Shonan Bellmare win, at 47.1%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 39% and over 2.5 goals at 34%.
A 47% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.