Lekan Salami Stadium · Analysis updated 14:26 UTC
Shooting Stars vs CS Sfaxien Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.16 expected goals for Shooting Stars and 1.14 for CS Sfaxien, a combined total of 2.30. That distribution gives Shooting Stars the largest share of the 1X2 market at 36%, with the draw at 28%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 40% for over 2.5 goals and 47% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 13%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 36% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Home/Draw
64.6% probability
Expected goals
1.16 – 1.14
Model version
poisson-v1
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Shooting Stars home form
13 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Shooting Stars to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 36%, against 36% / 28% / 35% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.16 goals for Shooting Stars and 1.14 for CS Sfaxien, a combined 2.30 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.
Goals markets
Over 2.5 goals lands at 40% and both teams to score at 47%, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 13%.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
65%
Double chance 12
72%
Double chance X2
64%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–113.3%
- 1–011.6%
- 0–111.5%
- 0–010.0%
- 2–17.7%
Recent form
Shooting Stars
- 2026-09-20T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Plateau United · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-09-13T17:00:00.000Z · A vs CS Sfaxien · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-09-05T15:00:00.000Z · H vs CS Sfaxien · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-08-28T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Inter Lagos · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-06-01T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Kada Warriors · 1-1 (D)
CS Sfaxien
- 2026-09-20T15:00:00.000Z · H vs CA Bizertin · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-09-16T15:00:00.000Z · A vs US Ben Guerdane · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-13T17:00:00.000Z · H vs Shooting Stars · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-09-05T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Shooting Stars · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-08-29T15:30:00.000Z · H vs ES Zarzis · 2-1 (W)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Home/Draw, at 64.6%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 47% and over 2.5 goals at 40%.
A 65% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.