Tishreen Stadium · Analysis updated 02:09 UTC
Shorta vs Al Taliya Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.22 expected goals for Shorta and 0.44 for Al Taliya, a combined total of 1.67. That distribution gives Shorta the largest share of the 1X2 market at 56%, with the draw at 31%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 23% for over 2.5 goals and 25% for both teams to score, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 23%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 56% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Shorta win
55.9% probability
Expected goals
1.22 – 0.44
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Shorta home form
5 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Shorta to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 56%, against 56% / 31% / 14% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.22 goals for Shorta and 0.44 for Al Taliya, a combined 1.67 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.
Goals markets
Over 2.5 goals lands at 23% and both teams to score at 25%, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 23%.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
87%
Double chance 12
69%
Double chance X2
44%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–023.1%
- 0–018.9%
- 2–014.1%
- 1–110.3%
- 0–18.4%
Recent form
Shorta
- 2026-07-04T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Horriya · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-07-01T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Omaya SC · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-06-24T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Al Wahda · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-06-19T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Al Karama · 2-5 (L)
- 2026-06-13T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Al Shouleh · 2-0 (W)
Al Taliya
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Premier League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Al Karama | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 7 |
| 2 | Shorta | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 7 |
| 3 | Hottin | 3 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 5 |
| 4 | Horriya | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 4 |
| 5 | Al Wahda | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 4 |
| 6 | Jaish | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 4 |
| 7 | Al Ittihad | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 3 |
| 8 | Damascus Al-Ahli | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 |
| 9 | Qamishli | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | -1 | 3 |
| 10 | Al Nawaeir | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | -2 | 3 |
| 11 | Wathba | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| 12 | Tishreen | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | -1 | 1 |
| 13 | Al Taliya | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | -2 | 1 |
| 14 | Foutoua | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | -5 | 0 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Shorta win, at 55.9%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 25% and over 2.5 goals at 23%.
A 56% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.