Stadion Guzor · Analysis updated 13:02 UTC
Shortan vs Kattaqurgon Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.00 expected goals for Shortan and 1.33 for Kattaqurgon, a combined total of 2.33. That distribution gives Kattaqurgon the largest share of the 1X2 market at 44%, with the draw at 28%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 41% for over 2.5 goals and 46% for both teams to score, with 0–1 the single most likely scoreline at 13%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 44% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Draw/Away
71.8% probability
Expected goals
1.00 – 1.33
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Shortan home form
12 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Kattaqurgon away threat
Scored in 2 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Kattaqurgon to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 44%, against 28% / 28% / 44% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.00 goals for Shortan and 1.33 for Kattaqurgon, a combined 2.33 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
56%
Double chance 12
72%
Double chance X2
72%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 0–113.0%
- 1–113.0%
- 0–09.8%
- 1–09.8%
- 0–28.6%
Recent form
Shortan
- 2026-08-22T12:00:00.000Z · A vs FarDu · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-08-15T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Kattaqurgon · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-08-10T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Olimpik-Mobiuz · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-08-05T14:00:00.000Z · A vs BuxDu · 4-2 (W)
- 2026-07-30T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Respublika FA · 2-1 (W)
Kattaqurgon
- 2026-10-12T10:00:00.000Z · A vs FarDu · 3-0 (W)
- 2026-10-08T11:00:00.000Z · H vs Metalourg · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-09-13T12:00:00.000Z · A vs BuxDu · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-09-07T11:00:00.000Z · H vs Respublika FA · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-08-27T12:30:00.000Z · A vs Aral · 0-1 (L)
Head-to-head
- 2026-08-15T14:00:00.000Z · Shortan 1-0 Kattaqurgon (Pro League A)
- 2026-04-12T10:00:00.000Z · Shortan 2-0 Kattaqurgon (Pro League A)
Pro League A table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Aral | 23 | 18 | 4 | 1 | 35 | 58 |
| 2 | Metalourg | 23 | 14 | 5 | 4 | 34 | 47 |
| 3 | Shortan | 23 | 14 | 4 | 5 | 17 | 46 |
| 4 | Gazalkent | 23 | 12 | 5 | 6 | 16 | 41 |
| 5 | Kattaqurgon | 23 | 12 | 4 | 7 | 8 | 40 |
| 6 | FarDu | 23 | 11 | 7 | 5 | 6 | 40 |
| 7 | Olimpik-Mobiuz | 23 | 11 | 6 | 6 | 18 | 39 |
| 8 | Lochin | 23 | 11 | 6 | 6 | 8 | 39 |
| 9 | Respublika FA | 23 | 8 | 5 | 10 | -2 | 29 |
| 10 | Yaypan | 24 | 7 | 4 | 13 | -17 | 25 |
| 11 | Jayxun | 23 | 7 | 3 | 13 | -8 | 24 |
| 12 | Pakhtakor II | 23 | 4 | 1 | 18 | -33 | 13 |
| 13 | BuxDu | 23 | 4 | 1 | 18 | -34 | 13 |
| 14 | Qiziriq | 24 | 1 | 1 | 22 | -48 | 4 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Draw/Away, at 71.8%. Its single most likely scoreline is 0–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 46% and over 2.5 goals at 41%.
A 72% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.