New Meadow · Analysis updated 14:52 UTC
Shrewsbury vs Stockport County Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.39 expected goals for Shrewsbury and 1.64 for Stockport County, a combined total of 3.03. That distribution gives Stockport County the largest share of the 1X2 market at 44%, with the draw at 24%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 58% for over 2.5 goals and 61% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 11%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 44% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Draw/Away
67.5% probability
Expected goals
1.39 – 1.64
Model version
poisson-v1
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Shrewsbury home form
7 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
Stockport County away threat
Scored in 2 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Stockport County to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 44%, against 33% / 24% / 44% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.39 goals for Shrewsbury and 1.64 for Stockport County, a combined 3.03 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
57%
Double chance 12
76%
Double chance X2
68%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–111.0%
- 1–29.0%
- 0–17.9%
- 2–17.7%
- 1–06.7%
Recent form
Shrewsbury
- 2026-10-06T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Stockport County · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-10-03T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Grimsby · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-26T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Colchester · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-09-22T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Tranmere · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-19T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Crewe · 1-1 (D)
Stockport County
- 2026-09-26T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Peterborough · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-19T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Sheffield Wednesday · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-09-12T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Leicester · 3-4 (L)
- 2026-09-05T11:30:00.000Z · A vs Wigan · 4-0 (W)
- 2026-09-02T18:45:00.000Z · A vs Luton · 0-2 (L)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Draw/Away, at 67.5%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 61% and over 2.5 goals at 58%.
A 68% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.