Sartichala Central Stadium · Analysis updated 12:42 UTC
Shturmi vs Gori Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.28 expected goals for Shturmi and 0.72 for Gori, a combined total of 2.00. That distribution gives Shturmi the largest share of the 1X2 market at 50%, with the draw at 29%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 32% for over 2.5 goals and 37% for both teams to score, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 17%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 50% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
Model pick
Shturmi win
49.8% probability
Expected goals
1.28 – 0.72
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Shturmi home form
9 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
Gori away threat
Scored in 2 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Shturmi to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 50%, against 50% / 29% / 21% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.28 goals for Shturmi and 0.72 for Gori, a combined 2.00 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
79%
Double chance 12
71%
Double chance X2
50%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–017.3%
- 0–013.6%
- 1–112.5%
- 2–011.1%
- 0–19.8%
Recent form
Shturmi
- 2026-09-20T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Gareji · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-16T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Telavi · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-12T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Odishi 1919 · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-09-06T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Aragvi Dusheti · 4-3 (W)
- 2026-08-29T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Gori · 1-3 (L)
Gori
- 2026-09-20T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Kolkheti Poti · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-16T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Gareji · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-12T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Telavi · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-09-06T12:30:00.000Z · A vs Odishi 1919 · 3-2 (W)
- 2026-08-29T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Shturmi · 3-1 (W)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Erovnuli Liga 2 table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Gareji | 30 | 15 | 9 | 6 | 7 | 54 |
| 2 | Shturmi | 30 | 13 | 10 | 7 | 7 | 49 |
| 3 | Telavi | 30 | 12 | 11 | 7 | 6 | 47 |
| 4 | Merani Martvili | 30 | 11 | 7 | 12 | -6 | 40 |
| 5 | Samtredia | 30 | 12 | 4 | 14 | 9 | 40 |
| 6 | Aragvi Dusheti | 30 | 11 | 6 | 13 | -9 | 39 |
| 7 | Odishi 1919 | 30 | 10 | 8 | 12 | -8 | 38 |
| 8 | Sioni | 30 | 9 | 9 | 12 | -2 | 36 |
| 9 | Gori | 30 | 8 | 9 | 13 | -7 | 33 |
| 10 | Kolkheti Poti | 30 | 7 | 11 | 12 | 3 | 32 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Shturmi win, at 49.8%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 37% and over 2.5 goals at 32%.
A 50% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.