Stadion Miejski · Analysis updated 07:03 UTC
Siarka Tarnobrzeg vs Zaglebie Lubin Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.58 expected goals for Siarka Tarnobrzeg and 1.33 for Zaglebie Lubin, a combined total of 2.91. That distribution gives Siarka Tarnobrzeg the largest share of the 1X2 market at 43%, with the draw at 25%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 56% for over 2.5 goals and 58% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 11%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 43% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Home/Draw
67.6% probability
Expected goals
1.58 – 1.33
Model version
poisson-v1
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Siarka Tarnobrzeg home form
9 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
Zaglebie Lubin away threat
Scored in 5 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Siarka Tarnobrzeg to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 43%, against 43% / 25% / 32% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.58 goals for Siarka Tarnobrzeg and 1.33 for Zaglebie Lubin, a combined 2.91 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
68%
Double chance 12
75%
Double chance X2
57%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–111.4%
- 2–19.0%
- 1–08.6%
- 1–27.6%
- 0–17.3%
Recent form
Siarka Tarnobrzeg
- 2026-10-09T16:30:00.000Z · A vs Wiślanie Jaśkowice · 1-4 (L)
- 2026-10-03T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Korona Kielce II · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-26T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Star Starachowice · 1-4 (L)
- 2026-09-19T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Podlasie Biała Podlaska · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-09-12T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Chełmianka Chełm · 1-1 (D)
Zaglebie Lubin
- 2026-10-23T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Motor Lublin · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-10-18T12:45:00.000Z · H vs Jagiellonia · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-10-10T12:45:00.000Z · A vs Cracovia Krakow · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-10-03T09:00:00.000Z · H vs Miedz Legnica · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-20T12:45:00.000Z · H vs Wisla Plock · 0-2 (L)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Home/Draw, at 67.6%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 58% and over 2.5 goals at 56%.
A 68% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.