Siauliai central stadium · Referee D. Simenas · Analysis updated 15:12 UTC
Šiauliai vs Suduva Marijampole Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 0.78 expected goals for Šiauliai and 2.13 for Suduva Marijampole, a combined total of 2.90. That distribution gives Suduva Marijampole the largest share of the 1X2 market at 69%, with the draw at 19%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 55% for over 2.5 goals and 48% for both teams to score, with 0–2 the single most likely scoreline at 12%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 69% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Suduva Marijampole win
68.5% probability
Expected goals
0.78 – 2.13
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Šiauliai home form
4 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Suduva Marijampole away threat
Scored in 6 of their last 7 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Suduva Marijampole to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 69%, against 12% / 19% / 69% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 0.78 goals for Šiauliai and 2.13 for Suduva Marijampole, a combined 2.90 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
32%
Double chance 12
81%
Double chance X2
88%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 0–212.4%
- 0–111.7%
- 1–29.6%
- 1–19.1%
- 0–38.8%
Recent form
Šiauliai
- 2026-09-20T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Kauno Žalgiris · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-09-13T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Hegelmann Litauen · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-09-06T16:00:00.000Z · A vs FK Zalgiris Vilnius · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-03T14:15:00.000Z · H vs Kauno Žalgiris · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-08-30T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Suduva Marijampole · 1-2 (L)
Suduva Marijampole
- 2026-09-29T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Jagiellonia · 0-5 (L)
- 2026-09-20T11:15:00.000Z · A vs Hegelmann Litauen · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-13T15:45:00.000Z · H vs FK Zalgiris Vilnius · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-09-09T15:45:00.000Z · A vs Kauno Žalgiris · 1-5 (L)
- 2026-09-06T13:00:00.000Z · A vs TransINVEST Vilnius · 2-1 (W)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
A Lyga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Kauno Žalgiris | 28 | 14 | 9 | 5 | 36 | 51 |
| 2 | Suduva Marijampole | 29 | 13 | 11 | 5 | 10 | 50 |
| 3 | FK Zalgiris Vilnius | 29 | 14 | 5 | 10 | 11 | 47 |
| 4 | TransINVEST Vilnius | 28 | 13 | 6 | 9 | 8 | 45 |
| 5 | Banga | 28 | 11 | 8 | 9 | 4 | 41 |
| 6 | Džiugas Telšiai | 28 | 10 | 8 | 10 | -4 | 38 |
| 7 | Panevėžys | 28 | 9 | 5 | 14 | -14 | 32 |
| 8 | Hegelmann Litauen | 29 | 4 | 14 | 11 | -17 | 26 |
| 9 | Šiauliai | 29 | 3 | 8 | 18 | -34 | 17 |
| 10 | FK Trakai | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Suduva Marijampole win, at 68.5%. Its single most likely scoreline is 0–2.
It puts both teams scoring at 48% and over 2.5 goals at 55%.
A 69% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.