Sibenik vs HNK Zadar Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 0.75 expected goals for Sibenik and 1.92 for HNK Zadar, a combined total of 2.68. That distribution gives HNK Zadar the largest share of the 1X2 market at 65%, with the draw at 21%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 50% for over 2.5 goals and 45% for both teams to score, with 0–1 the single most likely scoreline at 13%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 65% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.

Model pick

HNK Zadar win

65.1% probability

Moderate confidencePartial model70/100

Expected goals

0.75 – 1.92

Model version

poisson-v2

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

HNK Zadar away threat
Scored in 5 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates HNK Zadar to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 65%, against 14% / 21% / 65% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 0.75 goals for Sibenik and 1.92 for HNK Zadar, a combined 2.68 — an open game on paper.
Goals markets
Over 2.5 goals lands at 50% and both teams to score at 45%, with 0–1 the single most likely scoreline at 13%.

Match result (1X2)

Sibenik win14%

Draw21%

HNK Zadar win65%

Double chance 1X

35%

Double chance 12

79%

Double chance X2

86%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals75%

Over 2.5 goals50%

Over 3.5 goals28%

Both teams to score45%

Correct score

0–113.3%
0–212.8%
1–19.9%
1–29.6%
0–38.2%

Recent form

Sibenik

HNK Zadar

2026-08-25T14:30:00.000Z · A vs Kustosija · 1-3 (L)
2026-05-30T15:30:00.000Z · A vs Primorac Biograd · 2-1 (W)
2026-05-23T15:30:00.000Z · H vs Neretvanac Opuzen · 5-1 (W)
2026-05-16T15:30:00.000Z · A vs Junak · 1-0 (W)
2026-05-09T15:30:00.000Z · H vs GOŠK Dubrovnik · 2-1 (W)

Head-to-head

Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.

Third NL - Jug table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Zagora	30	22	3	5	39	69
2	Neretva Metković	30	19	6	5	32	63
3	HNK Zadar	30	18	6	6	38	60
4	Sloga Mravince	30	13	9	8	11	48
5	Junak	30	12	6	12	3	42
6	Jadran KS	30	11	6	13	-13	39
7	GOŠK Kaštel Gomilica	30	10	8	12	-5	38
8	Vodice	30	10	7	13	-4	37
9	Primorac Biograd	30	10	7	13	-7	37
10	Hrvatski vitez	30	11	3	16	-12	36
11	GOŠK Dubrovnik	30	8	11	11	-2	35
12	Val Kaštel Stari	30	10	5	15	-13	35
13	Sibenik	30	9	7	14	-17	34
14	Omiš	30	9	6	15	-6	33
15	Neretvanac Opuzen	30	9	6	15	-13	33
16	Kamen Ivanbegovina	30	8	6	16	-31	30

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is HNK Zadar win, at 65.1%. Its single most likely scoreline is 0–1.

It puts both teams scoring at 45% and over 2.5 goals at 50%.

A 65% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.