Longquanyi Stadium · Analysis updated 22:30 UTC
Sichuan Jiuniu vs Shanghai Shenhua Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.67 expected goals for Sichuan Jiuniu and 1.90 for Shanghai Shenhua, a combined total of 3.57. That distribution gives Shanghai Shenhua the largest share of the 1X2 market at 44%, with the draw at 22%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 69% for over 2.5 goals and 69% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 9%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 44% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Draw/Away
65.5% probability
Expected goals
1.67 – 1.90
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Sichuan Jiuniu home form
5 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
Shanghai Shenhua away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 3 of the last 6 meetings.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
56%
Double chance 12
78%
Double chance X2
66%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–18.9%
- 1–28.5%
- 2–17.5%
- 2–27.1%
- 1–35.4%
Recent form
Sichuan Jiuniu
- 2026-10-09T11:35:00.000Z · H vs Henan Jianye · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-09-05T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Shandong Luneng · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-08-28T12:00:00.000Z · H vs SHANGHAI SIPG · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-08-22T11:35:00.000Z · H vs Hangzhou Greentown · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-08-15T11:00:00.000Z · A vs Shenyang Urban · 2-1 (W)
Shanghai Shenhua
- 2026-09-27T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Zenit · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-09-17T12:15:00.000Z · H vs Tampines Rovers · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-06T11:00:00.000Z · A vs Chongqing Tongliang Long · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-09-01T11:35:00.000Z · A vs Dalian Zhixing · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-08-28T11:35:00.000Z · H vs Shandong Luneng · 2-3 (L)
Head-to-head
- 2026-05-24T12:00:00.000Z · Sichuan Jiuniu 2-1 Shanghai Shenhua (Super League)
- 2025-10-31T12:00:00.000Z · Sichuan Jiuniu 0-1 Shanghai Shenhua (Super League)
- 2025-06-14T11:35:00.000Z · Sichuan Jiuniu 3-1 Shanghai Shenhua (Super League)
- 2024-10-27T07:30:00.000Z · Sichuan Jiuniu 2-2 Shanghai Shenhua (Super League)
- 2024-07-17T12:00:00.000Z · Sichuan Jiuniu 0-0 Shanghai Shenhua (FA Cup)
- 2024-05-26T10:00:00.000Z · Sichuan Jiuniu 0-1 Shanghai Shenhua (Super League)
Super League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Chengdu Better City | 29 | 15 | 7 | 7 | 16 | 52 |
| 2 | Dalian Zhixing | 29 | 15 | 4 | 10 | 3 | 49 |
| 3 | Beijing Guoan | 29 | 14 | 10 | 5 | 21 | 47 |
| 4 | Shandong Luneng | 29 | 15 | 5 | 9 | 10 | 44 |
| 5 | SHANGHAI SIPG | 29 | 13 | 8 | 8 | 14 | 42 |
| 6 | Yunnan Yukun | 29 | 11 | 7 | 11 | -3 | 40 |
| 7 | Qingdao Youth Island | 29 | 8 | 15 | 6 | -6 | 39 |
| 8 | Shanghai Shenhua | 29 | 14 | 5 | 10 | 13 | 37 |
| 9 | Chongqing Tongliang Long | 29 | 8 | 12 | 9 | -3 | 36 |
| 10 | Hangzhou Greentown | 29 | 11 | 6 | 12 | -3 | 34 |
| 11 | Sichuan Jiuniu | 29 | 9 | 5 | 15 | -12 | 32 |
| 12 | Tianjin Teda | 29 | 11 | 8 | 10 | 4 | 31 |
| 13 | Shenyang Urban | 29 | 8 | 5 | 16 | -11 | 29 |
| 14 | Henan Jianye | 29 | 8 | 10 | 11 | -4 | 28 |
| 15 | Wuhan Three Towns | 29 | 5 | 12 | 12 | -11 | 22 |
| 16 | Qingdao Jonoon | 29 | 6 | 3 | 20 | -28 | 14 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Draw/Away, at 65.5%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 69% and over 2.5 goals at 69%.
A 66% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.