· Analysis updated 08:27 UTC
Sidama Bunna vs Ethiopian Medhin Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.25 expected goals for Sidama Bunna and 0.84 for Ethiopian Medhin, a combined total of 2.09. That distribution gives Sidama Bunna the largest share of the 1X2 market at 46%, with the draw at 29%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 35% for over 2.5 goals and 40% for both teams to score, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 16%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 46% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Sidama Bunna win
46.0% probability
Expected goals
1.25 – 0.84
Model version
poisson-v1
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Sidama Bunna home form
7 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Ethiopian Medhin away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Sidama Bunna to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 46%, against 46% / 29% / 25% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.25 goals for Sidama Bunna and 0.84 for Ethiopian Medhin, a combined 2.09 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
75%
Double chance 12
71%
Double chance X2
54%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–015.5%
- 1–113.0%
- 0–012.4%
- 0–110.4%
- 2–09.7%
Recent form
Sidama Bunna
- 2026-09-13T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Aiglons · 3-0 (W)
- 2026-09-05T14:30:00.000Z · A vs Aiglons · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-07-09T08:00:00.000Z · H vs Welwalo Adigrat Uni · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-07-05T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Mebrat Hayl · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-06-28T10:00:00.000Z · A vs Bahardar · 1-0 (W)
Ethiopian Medhin
- 2026-10-11T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Gamo Chencha · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-07-01T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Fasil Ketema · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-06-27T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Suhul Shire · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-06-21T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Mekelakeya · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-06-14T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Dire Dawa Kenema · 1-0 (W)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Sidama Bunna win, at 46.0%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 40% and over 2.5 goals at 35%.
A 46% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.