Siegburger SV vs Hennef 05 Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 2.00 expected goals for Siegburger SV and 1.31 for Hennef 05, a combined total of 3.32. That distribution gives Siegburger SV the largest share of the 1X2 market at 53%, with the draw at 22%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 64% for over 2.5 goals and 63% for both teams to score, with 2–1 the single most likely scoreline at 10%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 53% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.

Model pick

Siegburger SV win

53.4% probability

Low confidenceLow data42/100

Expected goals

2.00 – 1.31

Model version

poisson-v2

Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

Siegburger SV home form
12 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
Hennef 05 away threat
Scored in 2 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Siegburger SV to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 53%, against 53% / 22% / 25% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 2.00 goals for Siegburger SV and 1.31 for Hennef 05, a combined 3.32 — an open game on paper.

Match result (1X2)

Siegburger SV win53%

Draw22%

Hennef 05 win25%

Double chance 1X

75%

Double chance 12

78%

Double chance X2

47%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals84%

Over 2.5 goals64%

Over 3.5 goals42%

Both teams to score63%

Correct score

2–19.6%
1–19.5%
2–07.3%
1–07.3%
3–16.4%

Recent form

Siegburger SV

2026-08-30T13:30:00.000Z · H vs SSV Merten · 2-0 (W)
2026-07-26T15:00:00.000Z · A vs TuS RW Koblenz · 1-6 (L)
2026-07-19T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Monheim · 3-2 (W)
2026-06-07T13:00:00.000Z · A vs SSV Merten · 1-5 (L)
2026-05-31T13:30:00.000Z · H vs Hennef 05 · 3-0 (W)

Hennef 05

2026-09-27T13:30:00.000Z · A vs TuS BW Königsdorf · 4-1 (W)
2026-09-20T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Wegberg-Beeck · 0-3 (L)
2026-09-13T13:30:00.000Z · A vs Eintracht Hohkeppel · 0-3 (L)
2026-09-06T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Bornheim · 2-1 (W)
2026-08-30T13:15:00.000Z · A vs Hürth · 0-0 (D)

Head-to-head

Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.

Oberliga - Mittelrhein table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Wegberg-Beeck	9	7	1	1	12	22
2	SSV Merten	9	6	1	2	18	19
3	Eintracht Hohkeppel	9	5	2	2	8	17
4	Frechen	9	5	2	2	4	17
5	Düren Merzenich	9	5	1	3	2	16
6	Lindenthal-Hohenlind	9	4	3	2	1	15
7	Fortuna Köln II	8	4	1	3	4	13
8	VfL Vichttal	9	3	3	3	7	12
9	Bornheim	9	4	0	5	0	12
10	Siegburger SV	9	3	2	4	-1	11
11	Hürth	9	2	4	3	-4	10
12	Chlodwig Zulpich	9	3	1	5	-5	10
13	Hennef 05	9	3	1	5	-6	10
14	TuS BW Königsdorf	8	2	0	6	-23	6
15	Porz	9	1	2	6	-7	5
16	Neunkirchen-Seelscheid	9	1	2	6	-10	5

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Siegburger SV win, at 53.4%. Its single most likely scoreline is 2–1.

It puts both teams scoring at 63% and over 2.5 goals at 64%.

A 53% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.