· Analysis updated 09:07 UTC
Siero vs Avilés Stadium Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.65 expected goals for Siero and 0.80 for Avilés Stadium, a combined total of 2.45. That distribution gives Siero the largest share of the 1X2 market at 58%, with the draw at 24%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 44% for over 2.5 goals and 45% for both teams to score, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 14%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 58% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
Model pick
Siero win
57.6% probability
Expected goals
1.65 – 0.80
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Siero home form
12 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Avilés Stadium away threat
Scored in 2 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Siero to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 58%, against 58% / 24% / 18% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.65 goals for Siero and 0.80 for Avilés Stadium, a combined 2.45 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
82%
Double chance 12
76%
Double chance X2
42%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–014.2%
- 2–011.7%
- 1–111.4%
- 2–19.4%
- 0–08.6%
Recent form
Siero
- 2026-10-10T18:00:00.000Z · H vs L'Entregu · 3-0 (W)
- 2026-10-04T10:30:00.000Z · A vs Covadonga · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-26T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Ceares · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-09-20T10:00:00.000Z · A vs Astur · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-13T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Andes · 2-0 (W)
Avilés Stadium
- 2026-10-18T14:45:00.000Z · H vs Langreo · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-10-11T10:00:00.000Z · H vs Llanes · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-10-04T10:00:00.000Z · A vs Lealtad · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-09-27T10:00:00.000Z · H vs Sporting Gijón II · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-20T10:00:00.000Z · A vs Praviano · 1-0 (W)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Tercera División RFEF - Group 2 table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Sporting Gijón II | 8 | 6 | 2 | 0 | 10 | 20 |
| 2 | Covadonga | 7 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 12 | 16 |
| 3 | Condal | 7 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 8 | 15 |
| 4 | Mosconia | 7 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 12 |
| 5 | Siero | 8 | 4 | 0 | 4 | 2 | 12 |
| 6 | Caudal | 7 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 12 |
| 7 | Praviano | 7 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 5 | 11 |
| 8 | Gijón Industrial | 7 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 11 |
| 9 | Lealtad | 7 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 11 |
| 10 | Colunga | 7 | 3 | 2 | 2 | -2 | 11 |
| 11 | Langreo | 8 | 2 | 3 | 3 | -2 | 9 |
| 12 | San Martín | 7 | 2 | 3 | 2 | -3 | 9 |
| 13 | Avilés Stadium | 7 | 2 | 1 | 4 | -6 | 7 |
| 14 | L'Entregu | 7 | 1 | 2 | 4 | -7 | 5 |
| 15 | Ceares | 7 | 1 | 1 | 5 | -5 | 4 |
| 16 | Astur | 7 | 0 | 4 | 3 | -5 | 4 |
| 17 | Llanes | 8 | 0 | 4 | 4 | -8 | 4 |
| 18 | Andes | 7 | 0 | 2 | 5 | -9 | 2 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Siero win, at 57.6%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 45% and over 2.5 goals at 44%.
A 58% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.