Southern Arena Bo · Analysis updated 13:32 UTC
Sierra Leone vs Liberia Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.36 expected goals for Sierra Leone and 1.12 for Liberia, a combined total of 2.48. That distribution gives Sierra Leone the largest share of the 1X2 market at 42%, with the draw at 27%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 45% for over 2.5 goals and 50% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 13%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 42% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Home/Draw
69.3% probability
Expected goals
1.36 – 1.12
Model version
poisson-v1
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Sierra Leone home form
9 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Liberia away threat
Scored in 1 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Sierra Leone to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 42%, against 42% / 27% / 31% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.36 goals for Sierra Leone and 1.12 for Liberia, a combined 2.48 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
69%
Double chance 12
73%
Double chance X2
58%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–112.7%
- 1–011.4%
- 0–19.3%
- 2–18.7%
- 0–08.3%
Recent form
Sierra Leone
- 2026-06-09T18:30:00.000Z · A vs Liberia · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-06-06T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Liberia · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-03-30T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Azerbaijan · 1-1 (D)
- 2025-10-12T19:00:00.000Z · A vs Djibouti · 2-1 (W)
- 2025-10-08T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Burkina Faso · 0-1 (L)
Liberia
- 2026-06-09T18:30:00.000Z · H vs Sierra Leone · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-06-06T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Sierra Leone · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-03-31T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Libya · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-03-27T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Benin · 0-1 (L)
- 2025-11-15T15:30:00.000Z · A vs Guinea · 0-2 (L)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Home/Draw, at 69.3%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 50% and over 2.5 goals at 45%.
A 69% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.