Campo San Pedro · Referee Mario Cruz · Analysis updated 02:10 UTC
Siete Villas vs Tropezón Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 0.97 expected goals for Siete Villas and 1.45 for Tropezón, a combined total of 2.42. That distribution gives Tropezón the largest share of the 1X2 market at 48%, with the draw at 27%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 44% for over 2.5 goals and 48% for both teams to score, with 0–1 the single most likely scoreline at 13%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 48% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Tropezón win
48.2% probability
Expected goals
0.97 – 1.45
Model version
poisson-v1
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Siete Villas home form
3 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Tropezón away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Tropezón to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 48%, against 25% / 27% / 48% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 0.97 goals for Siete Villas and 1.45 for Tropezón, a combined 2.42 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
52%
Double chance 12
74%
Double chance X2
75%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 0–112.9%
- 1–112.5%
- 0–29.3%
- 1–29.1%
- 0–08.9%
Recent form
Siete Villas
- 2025-05-10T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Tropezón · 3-1 (W)
- 2025-05-04T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Barreda · 0-1 (L)
- 2025-04-27T09:45:00.000Z · H vs Torina · 0-2 (L)
- 2025-04-17T14:30:00.000Z · A vs Sámano · 0-2 (L)
- 2025-04-13T09:45:00.000Z · H vs Gama · 1-3 (L)
Tropezón
- 2026-10-10T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Atlético Mineros · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-10-04T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Castro · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-09-27T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Revilla · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-09-19T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Solares · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-12T17:00:00.000Z · H vs Selaya · 3-0 (W)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Tercera División RFEF - Group 3 table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Tropezón | 8 | 6 | 2 | 0 | 10 | 20 |
| 2 | Laredo | 8 | 6 | 0 | 2 | 13 | 18 |
| 3 | Revilla | 8 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 8 | 17 |
| 4 | Bezana | 8 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 6 | 17 |
| 5 | Cayón | 8 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 6 | 17 |
| 6 | Vimenor | 8 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 6 | 16 |
| 7 | Sámano | 8 | 3 | 4 | 1 | 8 | 13 |
| 8 | Torina | 8 | 2 | 6 | 0 | 6 | 12 |
| 9 | Atlético Mineros | 8 | 3 | 1 | 4 | -6 | 10 |
| 10 | Castro | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | -2 | 8 |
| 11 | Guarnizo | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | -4 | 8 |
| 12 | Selaya | 8 | 2 | 1 | 5 | -5 | 7 |
| 13 | Atlético Albericia | 8 | 1 | 3 | 4 | -4 | 6 |
| 14 | Solares | 8 | 1 | 3 | 4 | -6 | 6 |
| 15 | Escobedo | 8 | 1 | 3 | 4 | -8 | 6 |
| 16 | Naval Reinosa | 8 | 1 | 2 | 5 | -9 | 5 |
| 17 | Velarde | 8 | 1 | 2 | 5 | -9 | 5 |
| 18 | Barquereño | 8 | 1 | 2 | 5 | -10 | 5 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Tropezón win, at 48.2%. Its single most likely scoreline is 0–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 48% and over 2.5 goals at 44%.
A 48% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.