· Analysis updated 05:04 UTC
Sighetu Marmaţiei vs Crişul Sântandrei Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.90 expected goals for Sighetu Marmaţiei and 1.10 for Crişul Sântandrei, a combined total of 3.00. That distribution gives Sighetu Marmaţiei the largest share of the 1X2 market at 56%, with the draw at 22%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 58% for over 2.5 goals and 57% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 10%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 56% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Sighetu Marmaţiei win
55.9% probability
Expected goals
1.90 – 1.10
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Sighetu Marmaţiei home form
4 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Crişul Sântandrei away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 4 of the last 10 meetings.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
78%
Double chance 12
78%
Double chance X2
44%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–110.4%
- 2–19.9%
- 1–09.4%
- 2–08.9%
- 3–16.3%
Recent form
Sighetu Marmaţiei
- 2026-09-26T14:00:00.000Z · H vs SCM Zalău · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-09-23T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Bihorul Beiuş · 3-0 (W)
- 2026-09-19T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Sânmartin · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-11T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Sănătatea Cluj · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-09-05T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Crişul Sântandrei · 4-2 (W)
Crişul Sântandrei
- 2026-10-24T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Viitorul Cluj · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-10-16T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Unirea Dej · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-10-10T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Academica Recea · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-10-03T12:00:00.000Z · A vs SCM Zalău · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-26T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Bihorul Beiuş · 2-1 (W)
Head-to-head
- 2026-09-05T14:00:00.000Z · Sighetu Marmaţiei 4-2 Crişul Sântandrei (Liga III - Serie 8)
- 2026-04-10T14:00:00.000Z · Sighetu Marmaţiei 0-3 Crişul Sântandrei (Liga III - Serie 8)
- 2026-02-28T12:00:00.000Z · Sighetu Marmaţiei 0-1 Crişul Sântandrei (Liga III - Serie 8)
- 2025-10-04T12:00:00.000Z · Sighetu Marmaţiei 2-2 Crişul Sântandrei (Liga III - Serie 8)
- 2025-03-01T13:00:00.000Z · Sighetu Marmaţiei 5-1 Crişul Sântandrei (Liga III - Serie 10)
- 2024-10-12T12:00:00.000Z · Sighetu Marmaţiei 0-1 Crişul Sântandrei (Liga III - Serie 10)
- 2024-05-11T15:00:00.000Z · Sighetu Marmaţiei 2-1 Crişul Sântandrei (Liga III - Serie 10)
- 2024-04-27T14:00:00.000Z · Sighetu Marmaţiei 1-0 Crişul Sântandrei (Liga III - Serie 10)
- 2024-04-06T14:00:00.000Z · Sighetu Marmaţiei 2-0 Crişul Sântandrei (Liga III - Serie 10)
- 2023-12-02T12:00:00.000Z · Sighetu Marmaţiei 0-2 Crişul Sântandrei (Liga III - Serie 10)
Liga III - Serie 8 table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Minaur Baia Mare | 10 | 7 | 2 | 1 | 20 | 23 |
| 2 | Sănătatea Cluj | 10 | 5 | 4 | 1 | 10 | 19 |
| 3 | Crişul Sântandrei | 10 | 6 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 19 |
| 4 | Academica Recea | 10 | 6 | 0 | 4 | 4 | 18 |
| 5 | Sighetu Marmaţiei | 10 | 5 | 2 | 3 | 10 | 17 |
| 6 | SCM Zalău | 10 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 7 | 16 |
| 7 | Sânmartin | 10 | 3 | 4 | 3 | -1 | 13 |
| 8 | Bihorul Beiuş | 10 | 3 | 4 | 3 | -1 | 13 |
| 9 | Viitorul Cluj | 10 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 3 | 12 |
| 10 | Unirea Tășnad | 10 | 2 | 3 | 5 | -13 | 9 |
| 11 | Unirea Dej | 10 | 1 | 2 | 7 | -12 | 5 |
| 12 | Transilvania Sport Academy | 10 | 0 | 1 | 9 | -30 | 1 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Sighetu Marmaţiei win, at 55.9%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 57% and over 2.5 goals at 58%.
A 56% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.