Sigma Olomouc II vs Karviná II Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 2.32 expected goals for Sigma Olomouc II and 1.23 for Karviná II, a combined total of 3.55. That distribution gives Sigma Olomouc II the largest share of the 1X2 market at 62%, with the draw at 19%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 69% for over 2.5 goals and 64% for both teams to score, with 2–1 the single most likely scoreline at 10%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 62% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.

Model pick

Sigma Olomouc II win

61.7% probability

Moderate confidenceLow data42/100

Expected goals

2.32 – 1.23

Model version

poisson-v2

Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

Sigma Olomouc II home form
12 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Sigma Olomouc II to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 62%, against 62% / 19% / 19% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 2.32 goals for Sigma Olomouc II and 1.23 for Karviná II, a combined 3.55 — an open game on paper.
Goals markets
Over 2.5 goals lands at 69% and both teams to score at 64%, with 2–1 the single most likely scoreline at 10%.

Match result (1X2)

Sigma Olomouc II win62%

Draw19%

Karviná II win19%

Double chance 1X

81%

Double chance 12

81%

Double chance X2

38%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals87%

Over 2.5 goals69%

Over 3.5 goals47%

Both teams to score64%

Correct score

2–19.5%
1–18.2%
2–07.7%
3–17.3%
1–06.7%

Recent form

Sigma Olomouc II

2026-10-18T08:15:00.000Z · H vs Karviná II · 3-1 (W)
2026-10-11T08:15:00.000Z · A vs Havířov · 0-3 (L)
2026-10-03T08:15:00.000Z · H vs Vítkovice · 2-1 (W)
2026-09-26T13:30:00.000Z · A vs Uherský Brod · 1-2 (L)
2026-09-19T08:15:00.000Z · H vs Zlín II · 3-1 (W)

Karviná II

2026-10-04T08:15:00.000Z · H vs Zlín II · 0-1 (L)
2026-09-25T13:30:00.000Z · H vs Líšeň II · 2-2 (D)
2026-09-20T08:15:00.000Z · H vs Blansko · 3-5 (L)
2026-09-13T08:15:00.000Z · A vs Slovácko II · 1-3 (L)
2026-09-06T08:15:00.000Z · H vs Hodonín · 1-0 (W)

Head-to-head

Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.

3. liga - MSFL table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Uničov	14	10	2	2	14	32
2	Líšeň II	13	8	5	0	17	29
3	Frýdek-Místek	14	8	3	3	10	27
4	Zbrojovka Brno II	14	8	3	3	8	27
5	Sigma Olomouc II	14	8	1	5	11	25
6	Hranice	14	7	2	5	5	23
7	Uherský Brod	14	6	3	5	1	21
8	Vítkovice	14	5	4	5	0	19
9	Slovácko II	14	5	3	6	5	18
10	Unie Hlubina	13	5	3	5	2	18
11	Zlín II	14	5	3	6	-4	18
12	Hodonín	14	5	2	7	2	17
13	Karviná II	14	5	2	7	-2	17
14	Vrchovina	14	5	2	7	-13	17
15	Havířov	14	2	5	7	-11	11
16	Blansko	14	2	5	7	-14	11
17	Vsetín	14	3	1	10	-18	10
18	Polanka nad Odrou	14	2	3	9	-13	9

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Sigma Olomouc II win, at 61.7%. Its single most likely scoreline is 2–1.

It puts both teams scoring at 64% and over 2.5 goals at 69%.

A 62% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.