· Analysis updated 20:24 UTC
Siheung Citizen vs Changwon City Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.55 expected goals for Siheung Citizen and 1.15 for Changwon City, a combined total of 2.70. That distribution gives Siheung Citizen the largest share of the 1X2 market at 47%, with the draw at 25%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 51% for over 2.5 goals and 54% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 12%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 47% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Siheung Citizen win
46.5% probability
Expected goals
1.55 – 1.15
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Siheung Citizen home form
9 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 4 of the last 9 meetings.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Siheung Citizen to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 47%, against 47% / 25% / 28% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.55 goals for Siheung Citizen and 1.15 for Changwon City, a combined 2.70 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
72%
Double chance 12
75%
Double chance X2
53%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–112.0%
- 1–010.4%
- 2–19.3%
- 2–08.1%
- 0–17.7%
Recent form
Siheung Citizen
- 2026-10-11T05:00:00.000Z · A vs Gangneung City · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-10-03T08:00:00.000Z · A vs Ulsan Citizen · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-13T08:00:00.000Z · H vs Changwon City · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-09-06T08:00:00.000Z · A vs Yangpyeong · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-08-30T08:00:00.000Z · H vs Pocheon · 3-2 (W)
Changwon City
- 2026-09-20T08:00:00.000Z · A vs Gyeongju HNP · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-13T08:00:00.000Z · A vs Siheung Citizen · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-09-05T08:00:00.000Z · H vs Daejeon Korail · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-08-22T10:00:00.000Z · A vs Busan Transportation · 3-4 (L)
- 2026-07-26T10:00:00.000Z · H vs Jeonbuk Motors II · 1-1 (D)
Head-to-head
- 2026-05-02T05:00:00.000Z · Siheung Citizen 1-1 Changwon City (K3 League)
- 2025-07-13T08:00:00.000Z · Siheung Citizen 2-0 Changwon City (K3 League)
- 2025-03-15T05:00:00.000Z · Siheung Citizen 2-1 Changwon City (K3 League)
- 2024-09-14T05:00:00.000Z · Siheung Citizen 1-0 Changwon City (K3 League)
- 2024-05-18T06:00:00.000Z · Siheung Citizen 2-2 Changwon City (K3 League)
- 2023-09-22T10:00:00.000Z · Siheung Citizen 0-1 Changwon City (K3 League)
- 2023-05-27T06:00:00.000Z · Siheung Citizen 1-0 Changwon City (K3 League)
- 2022-10-23T07:00:00.000Z · Siheung Citizen 1-2 Changwon City (K3 League)
- 2022-04-08T10:00:00.000Z · Siheung Citizen 0-3 Changwon City (K3 League)
K3 League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Siheung Citizen | 23 | 17 | 4 | 2 | 17 | 55 |
| 2 | Pocheon | 23 | 13 | 7 | 3 | 19 | 46 |
| 3 | Daejeon Korail | 23 | 12 | 5 | 6 | 15 | 41 |
| 4 | Busan Transportation | 23 | 10 | 7 | 6 | 11 | 37 |
| 5 | Gyeongju HNP | 23 | 9 | 8 | 6 | 4 | 35 |
| 6 | Dangjin Citizen | 23 | 9 | 4 | 10 | 7 | 31 |
| 7 | Chuncheon | 23 | 8 | 6 | 9 | 4 | 30 |
| 8 | Changwon City | 23 | 7 | 8 | 8 | -2 | 29 |
| 9 | Ulsan Citizen | 23 | 8 | 4 | 11 | -2 | 28 |
| 10 | Yeoju Sejong | 23 | 7 | 7 | 9 | -3 | 28 |
| 11 | Gangneung City | 23 | 7 | 6 | 10 | -11 | 27 |
| 12 | Mokpo City | 23 | 5 | 9 | 9 | -14 | 24 |
| 13 | Yangpyeong | 23 | 3 | 8 | 12 | -17 | 17 |
| 14 | Jeonbuk Motors II | 23 | 1 | 7 | 15 | -28 | 10 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Siheung Citizen win, at 46.5%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 54% and over 2.5 goals at 51%.
A 47% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.