· Analysis updated 04:21 UTC
Siheung Citizen vs Daejeon Korail Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.38 expected goals for Siheung Citizen and 1.12 for Daejeon Korail, a combined total of 2.50. That distribution gives Siheung Citizen the largest share of the 1X2 market at 43%, with the draw at 27%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 46% for over 2.5 goals and 50% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 13%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 43% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Home/Draw
69.5% probability
Expected goals
1.38 – 1.12
Model version
poisson-market-v1
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Siheung Citizen home form
9 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
Daejeon Korail away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 6 of the last 10 meetings.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
70%
Double chance 12
73%
Double chance X2
57%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–112.7%
- 1–011.3%
- 0–19.2%
- 2–18.8%
- 0–08.2%
Odds vs model — value finder
Bookmaker prices with the margin removed (1X2 overround 12.7%), compared with our model probability.
No selection clears our 3-point edge threshold — the market looks efficiently priced.
| Market | Selection | Odds | Market % | Model % | Fair odds | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Match result | Home | 2.15 | 41.3% | 42.8% | 2.34 | +1.5 |
| Double chance | Draw/Away | 1.62 | 56.2% | 57.2% | 1.75 | +1.0 |
| Goals | Under 2.5 | 1.67 | 53.9% | 54.4% | 1.84 | +0.5 |
| Double chance | Home/Away | 1.25 | 72.8% | 73.3% | 1.36 | +0.5 |
| Match result | Away | 2.95 | 30.1% | 30.5% | 3.28 | +0.4 |
| Goals | Over 2.5 | 1.95 | 46.1% | 45.6% | 2.19 | -0.5 |
| Double chance | Home/Draw | 1.28 | 71.1% | 69.5% | 1.44 | -1.6 |
| Match result | Draw | 3.10 | 28.6% | 26.7% | 3.75 | -1.9 |
Market % has the bookmaker margin removed so it is comparable with the model. Edge is model % minus market %; it is an estimate, not a guarantee.
Recent form
Siheung Citizen
- 2026-10-11T05:00:00.000Z · A vs Gangneung City · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-10-03T08:00:00.000Z · A vs Ulsan Citizen · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-13T08:00:00.000Z · H vs Changwon City · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-09-06T08:00:00.000Z · A vs Yangpyeong · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-08-30T08:00:00.000Z · H vs Pocheon · 3-2 (W)
Daejeon Korail
- 2026-09-11T10:00:00.000Z · H vs Ulsan Citizen · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-05T08:00:00.000Z · A vs Changwon City · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-08-29T10:00:00.000Z · H vs Yangpyeong · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-08-23T08:00:00.000Z · A vs Siheung Citizen · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-07-25T09:00:00.000Z · A vs Pocheon · 1-1 (D)
Head-to-head
- 2026-08-23T08:00:00.000Z · Siheung Citizen 2-0 Daejeon Korail (K3 League)
- 2026-04-11T06:00:00.000Z · Siheung Citizen 1-0 Daejeon Korail (K3 League)
- 2025-10-11T05:00:00.000Z · Siheung Citizen 1-1 Daejeon Korail (K3 League)
- 2025-06-08T08:00:00.000Z · Siheung Citizen 3-2 Daejeon Korail (K3 League)
- 2024-10-04T06:00:00.000Z · Siheung Citizen 1-0 Daejeon Korail (K3 League)
- 2024-06-08T07:00:00.000Z · Siheung Citizen 2-1 Daejeon Korail (K3 League)
- 2023-06-24T10:00:00.000Z · Siheung Citizen 1-1 Daejeon Korail (K3 League)
- 2023-03-11T06:00:00.000Z · Siheung Citizen 4-2 Daejeon Korail (K3 League)
- 2022-09-18T05:00:00.000Z · Siheung Citizen 1-2 Daejeon Korail (K3 League)
- 2022-05-13T07:00:00.000Z · Siheung Citizen 2-0 Daejeon Korail (K3 League)
K3 League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Siheung Citizen | 24 | 17 | 4 | 3 | 16 | 55 |
| 2 | Pocheon | 24 | 14 | 7 | 3 | 21 | 49 |
| 3 | Daejeon Korail | 24 | 12 | 5 | 7 | 14 | 41 |
| 4 | Busan Transportation | 24 | 11 | 7 | 6 | 12 | 40 |
| 5 | Gyeongju HNP | 24 | 9 | 9 | 6 | 4 | 36 |
| 6 | Dangjin Citizen | 24 | 10 | 4 | 10 | 8 | 34 |
| 7 | Chuncheon | 24 | 9 | 6 | 9 | 5 | 33 |
| 8 | Gangneung City | 24 | 8 | 6 | 10 | -10 | 30 |
| 9 | Changwon City | 24 | 7 | 8 | 9 | -4 | 29 |
| 10 | Ulsan Citizen | 24 | 8 | 4 | 12 | -3 | 28 |
| 11 | Yeoju Sejong | 24 | 7 | 7 | 10 | -4 | 28 |
| 12 | Mokpo City | 24 | 5 | 10 | 9 | -14 | 25 |
| 13 | Yangpyeong | 24 | 4 | 8 | 12 | -16 | 20 |
| 14 | Jeonbuk Motors II | 24 | 1 | 7 | 16 | -29 | 10 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Home/Draw, at 69.5%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 50% and over 2.5 goals at 46%.
A 70% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.