Sileks Stadion · Analysis updated 16:01 UTC
Sileks vs Bregalnica Štip Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 2.28 expected goals for Sileks and 1.05 for Bregalnica Štip, a combined total of 3.33. That distribution gives Sileks the largest share of the 1X2 market at 65%, with the draw at 19%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 65% for over 2.5 goals and 58% for both teams to score, with 2–1 the single most likely scoreline at 10%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 65% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Sileks win
64.9% probability
Expected goals
2.28 – 1.05
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Sileks home form
8 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Bregalnica Štip away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 7 of the last 10 meetings.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
84%
Double chance 12
81%
Double chance X2
35%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 2–19.8%
- 2–09.3%
- 1–18.6%
- 1–08.2%
- 3–17.4%
Recent form
Sileks
- 2026-09-18T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Tikveš · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-09-13T13:45:00.000Z · H vs Bregalnica Štip · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-09-07T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Struga · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-08-28T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Shkendija · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-08-24T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Vardar Skopje · 1-4 (L)
Bregalnica Štip
- 2026-09-23T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Skopje · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-13T13:45:00.000Z · A vs Sileks · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-09-09T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Teteks · 4-1 (W)
- 2026-09-04T16:30:00.000Z · H vs Shkëndija Haraçinë · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-08-28T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Struga · 0-4 (L)
Head-to-head
- 2026-09-13T13:45:00.000Z · Sileks 2-2 Bregalnica Štip (First League)
- 2024-05-18T15:00:00.000Z · Sileks 1-1 Bregalnica Štip (First League)
- 2023-10-28T11:00:00.000Z · Sileks 0-0 Bregalnica Štip (First League)
- 2023-08-06T15:00:00.000Z · Sileks 1-2 Bregalnica Štip (First League)
- 2023-04-15T14:00:00.000Z · Sileks 0-0 Bregalnica Štip (First League)
- 2023-03-08T13:00:00.000Z · Sileks 1-2 Bregalnica Štip (First League)
- 2022-10-15T12:00:00.000Z · Sileks 3-2 Bregalnica Štip (First League)
- 2021-12-01T12:00:00.000Z · Sileks 1-1 Bregalnica Štip (Cup)
- 2021-08-01T16:00:00.000Z · Sileks 0-3 Bregalnica Štip (Friendlies Clubs)
- 2017-04-30T14:00:00.000Z · Sileks 3-2 Bregalnica Štip (First League)
First League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Shkendija | 11 | 7 | 3 | 1 | 14 | 24 |
| 2 | Struga | 11 | 7 | 2 | 2 | 19 | 23 |
| 3 | Vardar Skopje | 11 | 6 | 3 | 2 | 8 | 21 |
| 4 | Tikveš | 10 | 4 | 5 | 1 | 13 | 17 |
| 5 | Sileks | 11 | 4 | 4 | 3 | 8 | 16 |
| 6 | Shkëndija Haraçinë | 11 | 4 | 2 | 5 | -7 | 14 |
| 7 | Bregalnica Štip | 10 | 3 | 1 | 6 | -6 | 10 |
| 8 | Aresimi | 10 | 2 | 4 | 4 | -13 | 10 |
| 9 | Bashkimi Kumanovo | 10 | 2 | 1 | 7 | -20 | 7 |
| 10 | Skopje | 11 | 0 | 3 | 8 | -16 | 3 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Sileks win, at 64.9%. Its single most likely scoreline is 2–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 58% and over 2.5 goals at 65%.
A 65% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.