Sileks Stadion · Analysis updated 16:10 UTC
Sileks vs Tikveš Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.48 expected goals for Sileks and 1.80 for Tikveš, a combined total of 3.28. That distribution gives Tikveš the largest share of the 1X2 market at 45%, with the draw at 23%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 64% for over 2.5 goals and 64% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 10%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 45% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Tikveš win
45.4% probability
Expected goals
1.48 – 1.80
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Sileks home form
8 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Tikveš away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Tikveš to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 45%, against 32% / 23% / 45% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.48 goals for Sileks and 1.80 for Tikveš, a combined 3.28 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
55%
Double chance 12
77%
Double chance X2
68%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–110.0%
- 1–29.0%
- 2–17.4%
- 0–16.8%
- 2–26.7%
Recent form
Sileks
- 2026-09-18T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Tikveš · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-09-13T13:45:00.000Z · H vs Bregalnica Štip · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-09-07T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Struga · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-08-28T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Shkendija · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-08-24T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Vardar Skopje · 1-4 (L)
Tikveš
- 2026-09-18T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Sileks · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-09-11T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Struga · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-09-04T17:00:00.000Z · A vs Shkendija · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-08-31T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Vardar Skopje · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-08-21T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Skopje · 1-1 (D)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
First League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Shkendija | 10 | 7 | 2 | 1 | 14 | 23 |
| 2 | Struga | 10 | 6 | 2 | 2 | 15 | 20 |
| 3 | Vardar Skopje | 10 | 6 | 2 | 2 | 8 | 20 |
| 4 | Tikveš | 10 | 4 | 5 | 1 | 13 | 17 |
| 5 | Shkëndija Haraçinë | 10 | 4 | 2 | 4 | -5 | 14 |
| 6 | Sileks | 10 | 3 | 4 | 3 | 6 | 13 |
| 7 | Bregalnica Štip | 10 | 3 | 1 | 6 | -6 | 10 |
| 8 | Aresimi | 10 | 2 | 4 | 4 | -13 | 10 |
| 9 | Bashkimi Kumanovo | 10 | 2 | 1 | 7 | -20 | 7 |
| 10 | Skopje | 10 | 0 | 3 | 7 | -12 | 3 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Tikveš win, at 45.4%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 64% and over 2.5 goals at 64%.
A 45% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.