· Analysis updated 13:42 UTC
Şimal vs Cəbrayıl Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.32 expected goals for Şimal and 1.32 for Cəbrayıl, a combined total of 2.64. That distribution gives Şimal the largest share of the 1X2 market at 37%, with the draw at 26%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 49% for over 2.5 goals and 54% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 12%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 37% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Home/Draw
63.1% probability
Expected goals
1.32 – 1.32
Model version
poisson-market-v1
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Şimal home form
4 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Cəbrayıl away threat
Scored in 2 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Şimal to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 37%, against 37% / 26% / 37% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.32 goals for Şimal and 1.32 for Cəbrayıl, a combined 2.64 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
63%
Double chance 12
74%
Double chance X2
63%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–112.4%
- 0–19.4%
- 1–09.4%
- 1–28.2%
- 2–18.2%
Odds vs model — value finder
Bookmaker prices with the margin removed (1X2 overround 11.9%), compared with our model probability.
No selection clears our 3-point edge threshold — the market looks efficiently priced.
| Market | Selection | Odds | Market % | Model % | Fair odds | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Double chance | Draw/Away | 1.50 | 60.6% | 63.1% | 1.58 | +2.5 |
| Goals | Under 2.5 | 1.80 | 50.0% | 50.8% | 1.97 | +0.8 |
| Match result | Home | 2.45 | 36.5% | 36.9% | 2.71 | +0.4 |
| Match result | Away | 2.45 | 36.5% | 36.9% | 2.71 | +0.4 |
| Double chance | Home/Away | 1.22 | 74.5% | 73.8% | 1.36 | -0.7 |
| Goals | Over 2.5 | 1.80 | 50.0% | 49.2% | 2.03 | -0.8 |
| Match result | Draw | 3.30 | 27.1% | 26.2% | 3.82 | -0.9 |
| Double chance | Home/Draw | 1.40 | 64.9% | 63.1% | 1.58 | -1.8 |
Market % has the bookmaker margin removed so it is comparable with the model. Edge is model % minus market %; it is an estimate, not a guarantee.
Recent form
Şimal
- 2026-10-09T11:30:00.000Z · H vs Xankəndi FK · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-17T12:30:00.000Z · H vs Şahdağ · 1-4 (L)
- 2026-09-11T12:30:00.000Z · A vs MOIK · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-04T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Cəbrayıl · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-05-27T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Qaradağ Lökbatan · 2-1 (W)
Cəbrayıl
- 2026-09-17T12:30:00.000Z · A vs Mingəçevir · 3-0 (W)
- 2026-09-10T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Xankəndi FK · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-04T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Şimal · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-05-21T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Şimal · 2-3 (L)
- 2026-05-15T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Safa Baku · 0-1 (L)
Head-to-head
- 2026-09-04T13:00:00.000Z · Şimal 1-2 Cəbrayıl (Birinci Dasta)
- 2026-05-21T13:00:00.000Z · Şimal 3-2 Cəbrayıl (Birinci Dasta)
- 2026-02-24T11:00:00.000Z · Şimal 3-2 Cəbrayıl (Birinci Dasta)
- 2025-11-20T10:30:00.000Z · Şimal 0-7 Cəbrayıl (Birinci Dasta)
Birinci Dasta table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Şahdağ | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 9 |
| 2 | Cəbrayıl | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 9 |
| 3 | Səbail | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 7 |
| 4 | Karvan | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 6 |
| 5 | MOIK | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 4 |
| 6 | Zaqatala | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 4 |
| 7 | Xankəndi FK | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | -3 | 1 |
| 8 | Mingəçevir | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | -4 | 1 |
| 9 | Şimal | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | -4 | 1 |
| 10 | Baku Sportinq | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | -7 | 0 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Home/Draw, at 63.1%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 54% and over 2.5 goals at 49%.
A 63% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.