· Analysis updated 15:07 UTC
Şimal vs Şahdağ Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 0.97 expected goals for Şimal and 2.01 for Şahdağ, a combined total of 2.99. That distribution gives Şahdağ the largest share of the 1X2 market at 62%, with the draw at 21%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 57% for over 2.5 goals and 54% for both teams to score, with 0–2 the single most likely scoreline at 10%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 62% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Şahdağ win
61.5% probability
Expected goals
0.97 – 2.01
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Şimal home form
4 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Şahdağ to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 62%, against 18% / 21% / 62% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 0.97 goals for Şimal and 2.01 for Şahdağ, a combined 2.99 — an open game on paper.
Goals markets
Over 2.5 goals lands at 57% and both teams to score at 54%, with 0–2 the single most likely scoreline at 10%.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
39%
Double chance 12
79%
Double chance X2
83%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 0–210.2%
- 0–110.2%
- 1–210.0%
- 1–19.9%
- 0–36.9%
Recent form
Şimal
- 2026-10-09T11:30:00.000Z · H vs Xankəndi FK · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-17T12:30:00.000Z · H vs Şahdağ · 1-4 (L)
- 2026-09-11T12:30:00.000Z · A vs MOIK · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-04T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Cəbrayıl · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-05-27T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Qaradağ Lökbatan · 2-1 (W)
Şahdağ
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Birinci Dasta table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Şahdağ | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 9 |
| 2 | Cəbrayıl | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 9 |
| 3 | Səbail | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 7 |
| 4 | Karvan | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 6 |
| 5 | MOIK | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 4 |
| 6 | Zaqatala | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 4 |
| 7 | Xankəndi FK | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | -3 | 1 |
| 8 | Mingəçevir | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | -4 | 1 |
| 9 | Şimal | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | -4 | 1 |
| 10 | Baku Sportinq | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | -7 | 0 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Şahdağ win, at 61.5%. Its single most likely scoreline is 0–2.
It puts both teams scoring at 54% and over 2.5 goals at 57%.
A 62% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.