Simba vs Dodoma Jiji Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 1.60 expected goals for Simba and 0.68 for Dodoma Jiji, a combined total of 2.28. That distribution gives Simba the largest share of the 1X2 market at 60%, with the draw at 25%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 40% for over 2.5 goals and 39% for both teams to score, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 16%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 60% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.

Model pick

Simba win

59.7% probability

Moderate confidencePartial model70/100

Expected goals

1.60 – 0.68

Model version

poisson-v2

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

Simba home form
15 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Dodoma Jiji away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 0 of the last 10 meetings.

Match result (1X2)

Simba win60%

Draw25%

Dodoma Jiji win16%

Double chance 1X

85%

Double chance 12

75%

Double chance X2

40%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals66%

Over 2.5 goals40%

Over 3.5 goals20%

Both teams to score39%

Correct score

1–016.4%
2–013.2%
1–111.1%
0–010.3%
2–18.9%

Recent form

Simba

2026-10-25T13:00:00.000Z · H vs 15 de Agosto · 3-0 (W)
2026-10-21T12:00:00.000Z · A vs 15 de Agosto · 6-1 (W)
2026-10-13T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Mashujaa · 6-1 (W)
2026-10-10T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Young Africans · 2-1 (W)
2026-09-16T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Azam · 2-0 (W)

Dodoma Jiji

2026-10-16T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Geita Gold · 3-0 (W)
2026-10-09T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Singida Black Stars · 1-1 (D)
2026-09-11T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Namungo · 1-0 (W)
2026-09-04T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Mashujaa · 1-0 (W)
2026-08-29T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Tabora United · 1-0 (W)

Head-to-head

2026-05-24T15:15:00.000Z · Simba 1-0 Dodoma Jiji (Ligi kuu Bara)
2026-02-25T16:15:00.000Z · Simba 0-0 Dodoma Jiji (Ligi kuu Bara)
2025-03-14T13:00:00.000Z · Simba 6-0 Dodoma Jiji (Ligi kuu Bara)
2024-09-29T15:30:00.000Z · Simba 1-0 Dodoma Jiji (Ligi kuu Bara)
2024-05-17T13:00:00.000Z · Simba 1-0 Dodoma Jiji (Ligi kuu Bara)
2023-08-20T13:00:00.000Z · Simba 2-0 Dodoma Jiji (Ligi kuu Bara)
2023-01-22T16:00:00.000Z · Simba 1-0 Dodoma Jiji (Ligi kuu Bara)
2022-10-02T16:00:00.000Z · Simba 3-0 Dodoma Jiji (Ligi kuu Bara)
2022-03-07T16:00:00.000Z · Simba 2-0 Dodoma Jiji (Ligi kuu Bara)
2021-10-01T13:00:00.000Z · Simba 1-0 Dodoma Jiji (Ligi kuu Bara)

Ligi kuu Bara table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Simba	8	8	0	0	15	24
2	Young Africans	8	6	1	1	13	19
3	Azam	8	5	2	1	6	17
4	JKT Tanzania	9	5	1	3	0	16
5	Dodoma Jiji	8	4	2	2	3	14
6	Polisi Tanzania	9	3	3	3	1	12
7	Namungo	9	4	0	5	-3	12
8	Mashujaa	8	4	0	4	-4	12
9	Singida Black Stars	8	3	2	3	3	11
10	Mbeya City	8	3	1	4	-1	10
11	Coastal Union	9	3	1	5	-5	10
12	Tabora United	8	1	4	3	-1	7
13	Geita Gold	8	2	1	5	-6	7
14	Pamba Jiji	9	1	3	5	-5	6
15	Kagera Sugar	9	1	3	5	-8	6
16	Fountain Gate	8	1	2	5	-8	5

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Simba win, at 59.7%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–0.

It puts both teams scoring at 39% and over 2.5 goals at 40%.

A 60% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.