· Analysis updated 01:17 UTC
Simba vs Don Bosco Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.09 expected goals for Simba and 0.56 for Don Bosco, a combined total of 1.65. That distribution gives Simba the largest share of the 1X2 market at 48%, with the draw at 33%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 23% for over 2.5 goals and 29% for both teams to score, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 21%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 48% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
Model pick
Simba win
48.2% probability
Expected goals
1.09 – 0.56
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Simba home form
7 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Simba to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 48%, against 48% / 33% / 19% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.09 goals for Simba and 0.56 for Don Bosco, a combined 1.65 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.
Goals markets
Over 2.5 goals lands at 23% and both teams to score at 29%, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 21%.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
81%
Double chance 12
67%
Double chance X2
52%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–020.9%
- 0–019.2%
- 1–111.8%
- 2–011.4%
- 0–110.8%
Recent form
Simba
- 2026-10-20T11:00:00.000Z · H vs Saint-Luc · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-06-20T11:00:00.000Z · H vs Maniema Union · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-06-17T11:00:00.000Z · H vs Vita Club · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-06-14T14:00:00.000Z · A vs JSK · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-06-10T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Céleste · 1-1 (D)
Don Bosco
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Ligue 1 table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Simba | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 3 |
| 1 | Anges Verts | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 3 |
| 2 | Tanganyika | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 |
| 2 | Étoile du Congo | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 |
| 3 | Don Bosco | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| 3 | JSK | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 3 |
| 4 | Malole | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| 4 | FC Mk de Kinshasa | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| 5 | Saint Eloi Lupopo | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| 5 | Céleste | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| 6 | Sanga Balende | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| 6 | Dauphins Noirs | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| 7 | AS New Soger | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| 7 | Rangers | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| 8 | CS Manika | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| 8 | Etoile de Kivu | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| 9 | TP Mazembe | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 9 | New Jack | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | -2 | 1 |
| 10 | Lubumbashi Sport | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 10 | Vita Club | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 11 | Butras | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 11 | Maniema Union | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 12 | Blessing | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 |
| 12 | FC Renaissance | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 13 | Saint-Luc | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -2 | 0 |
| 13 | Novakin | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Simba win, at 48.2%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 29% and over 2.5 goals at 23%.
A 48% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.