Isamuhyo Stadium · Analysis updated 15:23 UTC
Simba vs Mbeya City Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.31 expected goals for Simba and 0.61 for Mbeya City, a combined total of 1.92. That distribution gives Simba the largest share of the 1X2 market at 54%, with the draw at 29%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 30% for over 2.5 goals and 34% for both teams to score, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 19%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 54% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
Model pick
Simba win
53.6% probability
Expected goals
1.31 – 0.61
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Simba home form
9 points from their last 3 home matches in our dataset.
Mbeya City away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Simba to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 54%, against 54% / 29% / 17% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.31 goals for Simba and 0.61 for Mbeya City, a combined 1.92 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
83%
Double chance 12
71%
Double chance X2
46%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–019.1%
- 0–014.6%
- 2–012.5%
- 1–111.7%
- 0–19.0%
Recent form
Simba
- 2026-09-16T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Azam · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-09-13T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Be Forward Wanderers · 6-1 (W)
- 2026-09-06T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Be Forward Wanderers · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-08-31T15:30:00.000Z · H vs Geita Gold · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-08-27T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Coastal Union · 1-0 (W)
Mbeya City
- 2026-08-28T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Fountain Gate · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-08-23T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Mashujaa · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-08-19T11:00:00.000Z · H vs Dodoma Jiji · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-08-14T13:15:00.000Z · H vs Geita Gold · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-07-08T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Tanzania Prisons · 0-0 (D)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Ligi kuu Bara table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Young Africans | 6 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 14 | 18 |
| 2 | Simba | 6 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 9 | 18 |
| 3 | Azam | 7 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 4 | 14 |
| 4 | Mashujaa | 7 | 4 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 12 |
| 5 | Singida Black Stars | 6 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 10 |
| 6 | Mbeya City | 6 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 10 |
| 7 | Polisi Tanzania | 7 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 10 |
| 8 | Dodoma Jiji | 6 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 10 |
| 9 | Namungo | 8 | 3 | 0 | 5 | -4 | 9 |
| 10 | Geita Gold | 7 | 2 | 1 | 4 | -3 | 7 |
| 11 | JKT Tanzania | 6 | 2 | 1 | 3 | -3 | 7 |
| 12 | Coastal Union | 6 | 2 | 1 | 3 | -3 | 7 |
| 13 | Tabora United | 7 | 1 | 3 | 3 | -1 | 6 |
| 14 | Pamba Jiji | 7 | 1 | 1 | 5 | -5 | 4 |
| 15 | Fountain Gate | 6 | 1 | 1 | 4 | -7 | 4 |
| 16 | Kagera Sugar | 6 | 0 | 2 | 4 | -9 | 2 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Simba win, at 53.6%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 34% and over 2.5 goals at 30%.
A 54% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.