Airtel Stadium · Analysis updated 14:32 UTC
Singida Black Stars vs Al-Ghazal Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 4.50 expected goals for Singida Black Stars and 1.00 for Al-Ghazal, a combined total of 5.50. That distribution gives Singida Black Stars the largest share of the 1X2 market at 91%, with the draw at 6%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 87% for over 2.5 goals and 60% for both teams to score, with 4–0 the single most likely scoreline at 7%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 91% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Singida Black Stars win
90.6% probability
Expected goals
4.50 – 1.00
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Singida Black Stars home form
12 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Singida Black Stars to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 91%, against 91% / 6% / 4% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 4.50 goals for Singida Black Stars and 1.00 for Al-Ghazal, a combined 5.50 — an open game on paper.
Goals markets
Over 2.5 goals lands at 87% and both teams to score at 60%, with 4–0 the single most likely scoreline at 7%.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
97%
Double chance 12
94%
Double chance X2
9%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 4–07.0%
- 4–17.0%
- 5–06.3%
- 5–16.3%
- 3–06.2%
Recent form
Singida Black Stars
- 2026-09-13T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Al-Ghazal · 3-0 (W)
- 2026-09-09T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Mashujaa · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-06T13:30:00.000Z · A vs Al-Ghazal · 7-1 (W)
- 2026-09-01T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Namungo · 3-2 (W)
- 2026-08-29T15:30:00.000Z · H vs Polisi Tanzania · 4-2 (W)
Al-Ghazal
- 2026-09-13T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Singida Black Stars · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-09-06T13:30:00.000Z · H vs Singida Black Stars · 1-7 (L)
Head-to-head
- 2026-09-13T13:00:00.000Z · Singida Black Stars 3-0 Al-Ghazal (CAF Confederation Cup)
- 2026-09-06T13:30:00.000Z · Singida Black Stars 7-1 Al-Ghazal (CAF Confederation Cup)
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Singida Black Stars win, at 90.6%. Its single most likely scoreline is 4–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 60% and over 2.5 goals at 87%.
A 91% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.