Singida Black Stars vs Fountain Gate Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 2.18 expected goals for Singida Black Stars and 0.76 for Fountain Gate, a combined total of 2.94. That distribution gives Singida Black Stars the largest share of the 1X2 market at 70%, with the draw at 19%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 56% for over 2.5 goals and 47% for both teams to score, with 2–0 the single most likely scoreline at 13%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 70% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.

Model pick

Singida Black Stars win

69.8% probability

Moderate confidenceLow data42/100

Expected goals

2.18 – 0.76

Model version

poisson-v2

Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

Singida Black Stars home form
12 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Fountain Gate away threat
Scored in 1 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Singida Black Stars to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 70%, against 70% / 19% / 12% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 2.18 goals for Singida Black Stars and 0.76 for Fountain Gate, a combined 2.94 — an open game on paper.

Match result (1X2)

Singida Black Stars win70%

Draw19%

Fountain Gate win12%

Double chance 1X

88%

Double chance 12

82%

Double chance X2

30%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals79%

Over 2.5 goals56%

Over 3.5 goals34%

Both teams to score47%

Correct score

2–012.5%
1–011.5%
2–19.6%
3–09.1%
1–18.8%

Recent form

Singida Black Stars

2026-09-13T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Al-Ghazal · 3-0 (W)
2026-09-09T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Mashujaa · 1-2 (L)
2026-09-06T13:30:00.000Z · A vs Al-Ghazal · 7-1 (W)
2026-09-01T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Namungo · 3-2 (W)
2026-08-29T15:30:00.000Z · H vs Polisi Tanzania · 4-2 (W)

Fountain Gate

2026-08-28T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Mbeya City · 0-2 (L)
2026-08-25T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Namungo · 0-1 (L)
2026-08-18T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Mashujaa · 1-0 (W)
2026-08-14T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Singida Black Stars · 0-3 (L)
2026-06-30T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Singida Black Stars · 4-3 (W)

Head-to-head

Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.

Ligi kuu Bara table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Young Africans	6	6	0	0	14	18
2	Simba	6	6	0	0	9	18
3	Azam	7	4	2	1	4	14
4	Mashujaa	7	4	0	3	1	12
5	Singida Black Stars	6	3	1	2	4	10
6	Mbeya City	6	3	1	2	2	10
7	Polisi Tanzania	7	3	1	3	1	10
8	Dodoma Jiji	6	3	1	2	0	10
9	Namungo	8	3	0	5	-4	9
10	Geita Gold	7	2	1	4	-3	7
11	JKT Tanzania	6	2	1	3	-3	7
12	Coastal Union	6	2	1	3	-3	7
13	Tabora United	7	1	3	3	-1	6
14	Pamba Jiji	7	1	1	5	-5	4
15	Fountain Gate	6	1	1	4	-7	4
16	Kagera Sugar	6	0	2	4	-9	2

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Singida Black Stars win, at 69.8%. Its single most likely scoreline is 2–0.

It puts both teams scoring at 47% and over 2.5 goals at 56%.

A 70% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.