· Analysis updated 13:30 UTC
Sint-Truiden II vs Wilrijk Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 2.03 expected goals for Sint-Truiden II and 2.42 for Wilrijk, a combined total of 4.45. That distribution gives Wilrijk the largest share of the 1X2 market at 47%, with the draw at 19%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 82% for over 2.5 goals and 79% for both teams to score, with 2–2 the single most likely scoreline at 7%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 47% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Wilrijk win
47.4% probability
Expected goals
2.03 – 2.42
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Sint-Truiden II home form
10 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Wilrijk to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 47%, against 33% / 19% / 47% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 2.03 goals for Sint-Truiden II and 2.42 for Wilrijk, a combined 4.45 — an open game on paper.
Goals markets
Over 2.5 goals lands at 82% and both teams to score at 79%, with 2–2 the single most likely scoreline at 7%.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
53%
Double chance 12
81%
Double chance X2
67%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 2–27.0%
- 1–26.9%
- 2–15.8%
- 1–15.7%
- 2–35.7%
Recent form
Sint-Truiden II
- 2026-09-13T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Diegem Sport · 6-2 (W)
- 2026-09-05T17:30:00.000Z · A vs De Kempen · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-08-30T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Wilrijk · 0-5 (L)
- 2026-04-26T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Wellen · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-04-19T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Nijlen · 5-5 (D)
Wilrijk
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Second Amateur Division - VFV B table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Tempo Overijse | 6 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 14 | 18 |
| 2 | Hades | 6 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 8 | 13 |
| 3 | De Kempen | 6 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 9 | 12 |
| 4 | Wilrijk | 6 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 9 |
| 5 | Royal Antwerp II | 6 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 9 |
| 6 | Diegem Sport | 6 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 9 |
| 7 | Racing Mechelen | 6 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 9 |
| 8 | Eendracht Termien | 6 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 8 |
| 9 | Wellen | 6 | 2 | 1 | 3 | -1 | 7 |
| 10 | Rotselaar | 6 | 2 | 1 | 3 | -2 | 7 |
| 11 | Rupel Boom | 6 | 2 | 1 | 3 | -6 | 7 |
| 12 | Nijlen | 6 | 2 | 1 | 3 | -7 | 7 |
| 13 | Bocholt | 6 | 1 | 2 | 3 | -7 | 5 |
| 14 | Tongeren | 6 | 0 | 4 | 2 | -3 | 4 |
| 15 | Sint-Truiden II | 6 | 1 | 1 | 4 | -5 | 4 |
| 16 | Cappellen | 6 | 0 | 3 | 3 | -6 | 3 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Wilrijk win, at 47.4%. Its single most likely scoreline is 2–2.
It puts both teams scoring at 79% and over 2.5 goals at 82%.
A 47% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.