Stade de Tourbillon · Analysis updated 14:42 UTC
Sion W vs Thun W Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.53 expected goals for Sion W and 2.14 for Thun W, a combined total of 3.67. That distribution gives Thun W the largest share of the 1X2 market at 52%, with the draw at 21%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 71% for over 2.5 goals and 69% for both teams to score, with 1–2 the single most likely scoreline at 9%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 52% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Thun W win
51.6% probability
Expected goals
1.53 – 2.14
Model version
poisson-v1
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Sion W home form
0 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Thun W away threat
Scored in 2 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Thun W to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 52%, against 28% / 21% / 52% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.53 goals for Sion W and 2.14 for Thun W, a combined 3.67 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
48%
Double chance 12
79%
Double chance X2
72%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–28.9%
- 1–18.3%
- 2–26.8%
- 2–16.4%
- 1–36.4%
Recent form
Sion W
- 2026-05-30T17:00:00.000Z · H vs Thun W · 1-6 (L)
- 2026-05-23T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Yverdon W · 0-5 (L)
- 2026-05-16T15:30:00.000Z · H vs Luzern W · 2-5 (L)
- 2026-05-09T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Thun W · 1-4 (L)
- 2026-05-02T15:30:00.000Z · H vs Yverdon W · 0-1 (L)
Thun W
- 2026-05-30T17:00:00.000Z · A vs Sion W · 6-1 (W)
- 2026-05-23T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Luzern W · 1-4 (L)
- 2026-05-17T12:30:00.000Z · A vs Yverdon W · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-05-09T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Sion W · 4-1 (W)
- 2026-05-02T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Luzern W · 0-1 (L)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
AXA Women’s Super League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Servette Chênois W | 8 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 10 | 19 |
| 2 | Grasshopper W | 8 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 15 | 17 |
| 3 | Zürich W | 8 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 11 | 15 |
| 4 | Young Boys W | 8 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 4 | 15 |
| 5 | Basel W | 8 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 12 |
| 6 | Luzern W | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 11 |
| 7 | Yverdon W | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | -2 | 8 |
| 8 | Rapperswil Jona W | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | -5 | 8 |
| 9 | St. Gallen W | 8 | 1 | 1 | 6 | -14 | 4 |
| 10 | Aarau W | 8 | 0 | 1 | 7 | -23 | 1 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Thun W win, at 51.6%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–2.
It puts both teams scoring at 69% and over 2.5 goals at 71%.
A 52% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.