Tamaz Stepania Stadium · Analysis updated 03:04 UTC
Sioni vs Kolkheti Poti Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.53 expected goals for Sioni and 1.08 for Kolkheti Poti, a combined total of 2.60. That distribution gives Sioni the largest share of the 1X2 market at 48%, with the draw at 26%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 48% for over 2.5 goals and 52% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 12%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 48% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Sioni win
47.6% probability
Expected goals
1.53 – 1.08
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Sioni home form
9 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Kolkheti Poti away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 5 of the last 10 meetings.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
73%
Double chance 12
74%
Double chance X2
52%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–112.2%
- 1–011.3%
- 2–19.3%
- 2–08.6%
- 0–18.0%
Recent form
Sioni
- 2026-08-29T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Telavi · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-08-22T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Odishi 1919 · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-08-15T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Shturmi · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-08-08T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Gori · 1-4 (L)
- 2026-07-25T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Gori · 0-1 (L)
Kolkheti Poti
- 2026-10-24T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Telavi · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-10-17T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Odishi 1919 · 4-0 (W)
- 2026-10-10T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Shturmi · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-09-20T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Gori · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-16T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Samtredia · 1-0 (W)
Head-to-head
- 2026-09-12T15:00:00.000Z · Sioni 1-1 Kolkheti Poti (Erovnuli Liga 2)
- 2026-05-30T12:00:00.000Z · Sioni 0-0 Kolkheti Poti (Erovnuli Liga 2)
- 2026-04-18T12:00:00.000Z · Sioni 0-1 Kolkheti Poti (Erovnuli Liga 2)
- 2023-10-29T14:00:00.000Z · Sioni 0-1 Kolkheti Poti (Erovnuli Liga 2)
- 2023-08-18T13:30:00.000Z · Sioni 1-1 Kolkheti Poti (Erovnuli Liga 2)
- 2023-05-15T15:00:00.000Z · Sioni 1-3 Kolkheti Poti (Erovnuli Liga 2)
- 2023-03-19T11:00:00.000Z · Sioni 3-2 Kolkheti Poti (Erovnuli Liga 2)
- 2018-10-27T11:00:00.000Z · Sioni 1-1 Kolkheti Poti (Erovnuli Liga)
- 2018-08-17T13:30:00.000Z · Sioni 2-0 Kolkheti Poti (Erovnuli Liga)
- 2018-05-19T16:30:00.000Z · Sioni 0-2 Kolkheti Poti (Erovnuli Liga)
Erovnuli Liga 2 table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Gareji | 30 | 15 | 9 | 6 | 7 | 54 |
| 2 | Shturmi | 30 | 13 | 10 | 7 | 7 | 49 |
| 3 | Telavi | 30 | 12 | 11 | 7 | 6 | 47 |
| 4 | Merani Martvili | 30 | 11 | 7 | 12 | -6 | 40 |
| 5 | Samtredia | 30 | 12 | 4 | 14 | 9 | 40 |
| 6 | Aragvi Dusheti | 30 | 11 | 6 | 13 | -9 | 39 |
| 7 | Odishi 1919 | 30 | 10 | 8 | 12 | -8 | 38 |
| 8 | Sioni | 30 | 9 | 9 | 12 | -2 | 36 |
| 9 | Gori | 30 | 8 | 9 | 13 | -7 | 33 |
| 10 | Kolkheti Poti | 30 | 7 | 11 | 12 | 3 | 32 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Sioni win, at 47.6%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 52% and over 2.5 goals at 48%.
A 48% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.